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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael G. Potter who wrote (845)	1/26/2000 5:05:00 PM
From: Greg S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10713

OT - Blackjack You reduced the odds of losing by keeping rough track of the cards, but the mathematical % chance of losing was still fairly high. Without good money management (betting the whole wad in one throw), you risked losing everything and having no capital to recover. This is very true, but think about it this way. Every game in the casino is biased towards the house. Blackjack has the best odds in the entire casino. To win, you must beat the dealer. Sun had (arguably) increased his odds of winning a given hand by only playing ones in which the dealer was more likely to be handicapped. Waiting for those runs decreased his risk - betting the farm increased both his risk and reward. It's the difference between shorting stocks at random and shorting stocks that have gone up 800% in the last year. That being said, I prefer to win my money slowly but surely - not because I'm risk-averse, but because that way (a) I'm at the casino longer and am more likely to get comped, and (b) I end the session with a profit because the money doesn't get blown in the following hour. ;) Gambling is, after all, entertainment in itself, and I don't mind dropping some green as long as I have a good time. But I'd prefer to have the thrill of both gambling and winning. Congratulations, Sun .. -G

To: Michael G. Potter who wrote (845)	2/18/2000 2:17:00 AM
From: Stuart C Hall	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10713

I got into a heated debate today with a coworker who felt he could do better at Vegas with 50k than I could in the market over a one year period. I told him go to Vegas and bet to your heart's content. Give me 50k, a year's time and I'll discount my GAINS (LOSSES inconceivable!) by the Time Value of Money (TVM) and we'll see who does better. Please don't use coin flips when calculating VEGAS GAMBLING risk vs. stocks. I don't care if you get Heads 100 times in a row. Each coin flip is independent of the previous coin flip. 50/50 has no knowledge of previous performance. It's just not relevant. I can flip a coin and the coin has no memory of what happend on the previous flip. Mathemiticians be damned. It's just not relevant on the next flip. I challenge any mathemitician to show me how a previous event affects the FUTURE outcome of a 50/50 event in a one time trial. As far as blackjack, regardless of your prowess in counting cards, as someone who has a degree in Psychology who spent most of his work concentrating on Social Psychology, I can confidently assert that one thing remains true in a gambling environment. The more you win, the more conservative your bets become. The more you lose, the more you're willing to risk. I don't gamble because I know the house has the edge, but the next time you're at a BJ table, track your bets. If you win, you'll bet less. As you lose, you'll become a maniac trying to recoup your loss. Bet on it. :-) Regards, Stuart