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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (18495)	1/26/2000 9:36:00 PM
From: Ken W	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Sergio, "your FA is getting stale" You are correct. I did not look much beyond PE, rev's and Profit. Easier to read charts than SEC filings. LOL BTW we both win on HBI (except I won first) Bounced back over 3 and went to 4 while we were not looking. Now on its way back to 3. hmmmmm, a bread and butter stock? I did look at the FA on that one and really like it, but........ Ken

To: Sergio H who wrote (18495)	1/28/2000 3:45:00 PM
From: OldHack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29382

Sergio. Thought I would do some catching up here. I'm beginning to not like this Market although I've done well the past year or so. Bought and doubled GLM on the thought that some of the most powerful people and companies in the world would decide it was to their benefit to see oil prices rise. Added to and tripled or so ORCL betting their management would take the bad quarter suffered a couple of years ago as a wake up call. Got lucky with AMCC bought at 56 because analysts liked it and I couldn't find anything wrong with it. Also doubled CAMP because I felt even their management could grab off some of the growth in their sector going around. Have been riding MVIS to new highs although only the Lord knows why it keeps escalating. Last week I bought ANYD thinking it a possible eight or so month double, and some no name LLC gave it a strong buy doubling it in a day. What the hell--I sold it, although I plan to buy it back when it settles and seems to want to rise on its own merits. Also bought INTC in the low 70s because I figured not being able to meet demand wasn't all bad. I'd feel pretty cocky, almost sentient, if I hadn't lost on CPQ, on NDB because I underestimated the competition, and on WCOM because I can't get over the stubborn belief I must know more about it than the people who ain't buying it. Anyhow this market is beginning to look like a house of cards built upon the influx of retirement funds, an increase in day traders, overuse of margin accounts, etc. It seems to frequently defy logic. How else can you explain why a stock like YHOO sells for about 10 times the price of one like USG which makes about 8 bucks a share, pays a little dividend, and is buying itself back? What century will YHOO make 8 bucks in? Needless to say I own USG. And whatever happened to dividends? As a kid I can remember my grandmother who was otherwise a pretty sour lady almost humming as she clipped coupons. I decided then dividends must be a pretty neat thing. This market doesn't and companies with low P/Es and proud histories of paying dividends go sideways while AMZN, AOL, etc. fly. Fund managers seem to be almost forced to play the old Mo game in an effort to keep up with each other. Funds playing the internet where their total book value is what? Negative? are doubling while a value fund like Oakmont Select (also owned) with book galore and a single digit total PE works a year to go up 18%. These seeming anomalies could make this market (particularly its high flyers) subject to substantial correction given the right impetus. That impetus would be inflation which despite most Gov't. reports to the contrary I smell in the air. My driving range balls just went up 50% a bucket, a good steak at the market to $8.00 plus a lb., and gas to $1.25. It (inflation) is (IMHO) steadily increasing, and I believe Mr A. G. would be more visibly eschewing it if it wasn't such a political year. (He doesn't want to be accused of affecting another election.) Since I believe myself to have a chance of being right about the above I am resolved to buy and hold mostly value stocks in my daughter's and my inlaws' accounts. As for my trading (a hobby I'm too old to break) I'm going to try to pick stocks I wouldn't mind being turned into an investor in. I don't have any inspiration at the moment so am killing time looking at banks who are working at becoming financial centers such as Wash. Mutual and at small and midcap internet infrastructure. Holding cash until inspiration hits. In the meantime I will undoubtedly have to console myself with frequent toddies watching you and the others who post here pick winner after winner. Best wishes old friend, OH