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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (38272)	1/27/2000 4:42:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Joan, imo it's a mixture of both factors. clearly the rotation in the market and the continuing collapse in the a/d line are testament to the fact that cash is not as plentiful as some believe. interestingly, i hear about oil prices topping out or going still lower ever since they bottomed last year. occasionally there's a more bullish analyst voicing an opinion, but the tone of most comments on crude is more along the lines of 'it can't go much higher'. of course the completely erroneous assumption that OPEC would renege on it's new-found discipline isn't even voiced by the most devoted new era clowns anymore. you may or may not remember, but i have pointed out a long time ago on MDA why OPEC would remain disciplined and likely extend the production cuts, both of which have turned out to be correct (admittedly that was easy to predict). right now i think we may get a short term correction in crude, as the bullish sentiment in the futures market is very high. long term however, i continue to believe that prices will go higher...much higher in fact than most people now think. conclusion: pick up the oil stocks when crude corrects by say 10-15%...the stocks will likely signal the end of the correction by reversing course early - like the gold stocks today. that's when you pull the trigger. note that most resource stocks are discounting much lower prices in the commodities they produce - the disbelief is very much ingrained. and yet, the CRB index has made a new high for the move today. regards, hb