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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Madden who wrote (7855)	1/28/2000 4:00:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

>>Listening to the Maxtor conference call gave me the impression even the drive manufacturers are not sure whether the demand will stay high or take its seasonal drop. << When is the final deadline for the "seasonal drop" ? That term I think refers to the overbuild and overstock of computers and retailer shelves ahead of Christmas, and then discounting all the obsolete inventory in mid-December and January. Well this year there is no such thing. Dell and Compaq and Gateway all had parts shortages and could not over build even if they had wanted to. Each of the DD makers has less inventory now than last year. Prices are not dropping. Meaning that whatever inventory there is, it is not a liability. The remaining uncertainty is demand. Since computer prices stopped falling, does that mean that people will stop buying that second and third computer ??? So to me, it is not a "seasonal" drop, but questioning the firmness of demand given all the factors in the world economy. Another hopeful note. I don't think the woes of Dell have much impact on DD demand. Any teenager can build a PC in his living room and supply his neighbors, replacing Dell and Gateway. But it is not that simple for even giant corporations to build a disk drive and displace SEG or WDC. As far as I know, every PC made in the world needs a disk drive from one of our favorite companies here (or from Fugitsu). So Dell could go out of business, and it will have nothing to do with DD demand. The problem with DD stocks was DD companies were killing each other to keep from losing share to Fugitsu. Do you have any idea whether Fugitsu's disk operations were profitable or not during the past quarter ? I wonder how one can find out? Does one have to know to read Japanese for that ? Regards, Sarmad