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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: puborectalis who wrote (97798)	1/29/2000 8:19:00 AM
From: Joseph J Randazzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

<<<The economy east of the Mississippi can't be overheating in lieu of the cold snowy weather which dampens housing and other construction let alone the retail stores which are half empty....where's the overheating going to come from?...energy use?>>> As for the economy here in the Northeast, this is my opinion. I am a real estate appraiser in north Jersey covering Bergen, Passaic, and Essex Counties. The Fed started slowing down the housing market last summer with the first series of rate hikes. At that time almost every desirable home that came on the market went to sealed bids and as often as not, the home sold for above the already inflated listing price. Property values are up 50% since '97 in some towns. The only new construction, going on at this point, are new center hall mini castles. The percentage of the purchase being financed is at an all time high. Since September, the market has really been off, as the rates went up, more and more buyers were knocked out of the bidding because of what their payments would be. If you look at the existing home sales in my area, they are down big time. October '98 when rates were low low low, I appraised 61 homes during the month. October of '99, only 21. There have been mortgage companies closing down, there was a big layoff by Cendant in their Mt. Laurel office last fall. It has only gotten bitterly cold in the last few weeks. While we experienced a very mild early winter, business has been pathetic from my point of view. In terms of energy costs, yes they are sky high here in the northeast, for both gasoline and home heating oil. Now we here that SUV sales are slowing. Sure, at over $ 1.50 a gallon, that becomes a serious cost of running the vehicle all over the place dealing with normal day to day stuff. Meanwhile, again, in my opinion, there are still plenty of people out there that still have more than enough to overcome these constraints and resulting higher cost of borrowing. However, the average working class guy is struggling to keep up, especially in light of what it is going to cost down the road to send the children to college etc. I think the feds dilemna is to control inflation because if they don't, they are gonna face a lot of failures in the private sector by individuals who just cant make it on the salaries they are receiving. Wages pressure is taking place primarily in the high tech sector due to this incredible boom in technology and building out and the servicing of it's infrastructure. I guess my point is, in spite of all the productivity growth , which has enabled manufacturers to hold prices stable, there seems to be a growing divide between the haves and the have nots. As a long time tech holder, with INTC as one of my core holdings, I think this could be a rough spring while the Fed struggles to get control over the economy. The tightenings will more greatly adversely affect those who may really need to borrow, and those with cash or big capital gains will continue to buy big homes, fancy vehicles and luxury goods. I think the little guy is in for a tough 2000. I don't have any answers, and I certainly wouldn't want to be those Fed Reserve members cause they have a rough job ahead of them IMHO. Sorry if I got to far off topic. Joey R.