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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11514)	1/29/2000 11:16:00 AM
From: Surfer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Hi All, Some think that Fed may not increase rates next week due to Hedge fund rumors and inverted yield curve: www3.techstocks.com If so, how the market will react? What about Abbey Cohn's of the world. Sooner or later, they may all come out and try to turn the psychology of the market by calling it undervalued, buy, strong buy, it's cheaper now, XYZ company buying back shares, huge market in B2B, etc. It worked in the past. Why it won't now? Also, another force in play. Stock splits. Quite a few of them are being split in Feb: investhelp.com One more topic: Look at the Nasdaq 100 stocks list at (scroll down the page to see the list): dynamic.nasdaq-amex.com Which one(s) is not late yet to short, or hold or time to buy in anticipation of wall street folks coming out and touting the stock(s) as great buy because stock has corrected x% and yada, yada...? It is an interesting time indeed: 1. Fed vs possible wall street touting game. 2. Interest rate vs splits, earnings & upgrades. Which force is going to take control in the next month, 3 months, & one year? Wish, knew the answer... Thanks.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11514)	1/29/2000 4:54:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Rate Hike Analysis Since 1994, there have been eleven tightenings. On the day of the tightening, the market was up six times and down four and flat once on the day of the tightening. Of those six up days, three of those days took place on the last three rate hikes. On June 30th the market (S & P) was up 1.57%; on August 24th the market was up .24%; and on November 16th the market was up 1.84%. In the OTC, the market was up 1.67%, 1.21% and 2.36% respectively. If the Fed. moves only .25, the probability is that the market will initially rally. I believe the market has discounted a .50 rate hike next week on Friday and anything less will be a cause for a rally. I would watch the market closely on this point to see if the sentiment had changed. Now I had thought last week that the Greenman would only move 25 basis points. I thought, in part, that his appearances before Congress would expose him as a 25 basis point man. But one of those appearances was postponed and we spun some bad numbers on Friday. So the Greenman can move 50 basis points here. What the heck, he might think, the market has already corrected for 50 basis points so why not give the market what it looking for and be done with it for now. After all, he was going to tighten at the end of December but for Y2K and the next meeting is not until March 21st -- quite a way off. How about a two-fer right here. So I would now put the odds of a 50 basis move at 50/50 FWIW. And I think this meeting will be quite telling on how much of a new era man the Greenman has become. This is the pivotal meeting for the Fed. IMO. Because if he does not take his 50 basis points here and the market follows recent history, I think there will be greater risk in the market going forward if it rallies hard and complacency returns.