To: Jim McMannis who wrote (97800 ) 1/29/2000 12:58:00 PM From: Barry Grossman Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
Jim,of course if you take food and energy, the stock market, Real Estate, building materials, automobiles out of the equation along with a bunch of other inflating items...there is no inflation I'm in the chemical business. Products that go into the manufacture of other things - like food, cosmetics, nutritional supplements/pharmaceuticals, and hard goods like batteries. Almost without exception, the world prices we are paying for the chemicals that we resell to manufacturers are LOWER and some cases, MUCH LOWER, than we were paying three years ago for the same chemicals from the same producers. Reason: increased supply and new competitors who want market share. As to your examples of inflation: Food - Any inflation here is caused by weather-related shortages - increasing productivity keeps costs very low. Energy - Gas & Oil cartel controlled inflation. Stock Market - A case of greatly increasing demand for a limited supply of currently available securities which expands over time to attempt to meet that growing demand. I wouldn't call this inflation. You can call it whatever you want. Real Estate - Coming from a deflation, in many cases values are not even back to previous levels - so 10 year inflation = 0 more or less Automobiles - Sure they cost more every year but they last longer too and they have more inside of them that we agree we want and pay for too. Is that inflation? Building materials - Which ones are inflating? Wood? Cement? Insulation? Tools? Nails? Glue? Paper? Jim 2-3%/year inflation is a magnificent accomplishment any way you want to look at. We are living in one of the greatest economic times in our nation's history. Why shouldn't the stock market go up (I wouldn't use the term inflate) when profits are very strong and the outlook for their continuing to be strong is likely? I think that extreme media attention on downside risks de-emphasizes the great accomplishments that are everywhere to be seen. Of course, such is how great buying opportunities often occur. Barry