DIS
Disney (Walt) Company ? 26 January 2000 (Continued) 2 n Approaching an Inflection Point ? Raising Rating, Price Objective and Estimates We are raising our near-term rating on Disney from Neutral to Accumulate with a new 12-month price objective of $37 per share, upside of 12% from current levels. There are a number of factors prompting us to upgrade the stock at current levels. There are more signs of at least a modest recovery in Disney?s underlying performance. We believe investor perception towards Disney will continue to become more positive, in part due to these first signs of stabilizing to improving operating results. In addition, in light of the AOL Time Warner mega-merger and the implication for companies with unique and distinctive content, such as Disney, multiples for the handful of vertically integrated media and entertainment companies is likely to rise.. We have maintained our view that despite the near-term trough in operating results, Disney is, and will remain, a preeminent media and entertainment franchise, flush with world class assets, unique content creation capabilities and depth in management (strengthened today with the appointment of Bob Iger to President and COO, thereby alleviating any succession issues). The core reason for our Neutral stance centered on the lack of earnings visibility. Thanks, in large part, to the sensational success of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire in conjunction with the increasingly robust advertising environment, across virtually all media platforms, Disney?s Media Networks segment (which encompasses both cable network and broadcast properties) is quickly improving Disney?s visibility of an earnings? recovery. While we note that Media Networks? Q1 operating growth of 73% is not sustainable throughout the remainder of FY00, we are increasing our full year operating income and EPS estimates on the heels of the exceptionally strong Q1 results. We are introducing a 12 month price objective of $37 per share, upside of 12% from current levels, based on a blended target multiple of 15x estimated CY01 EBITDA. Disney shares are currently trading at an EV/EBITDA of 15.4x and 13.6x CY00E and CY01E EBITDA, respectively. We are raising our FY00 EPS estimate to $0.73 from $0.68, reflecting the better than expected results in FYQ1. Based on our revised EPS estimates (excluding GO.com losses) for FY00 and FY01 of $0.75 and $0.90, Disney?s current P/E ratio is 45x and 37x, or nearly twice the P/E multiple of the broader market. We note that Disney has always maintained its premium valuation relative to its peers, even in the midst of several consecutive earnings downgrades. Furthermore, from a growth standpoint, Disney is not among the faster growing companies in the sector. We project operating income will increase 11% in FY00 and 14% in FY01, which is slower than Fox, Viacom, CBS and Seagram, all of which are projected to enjoy faster EBITDA growth over the foreseeable future. Despite the new Viacom (i.e. including CBS), which trades at 19x CY01E EBITDA, both Fox and Seagram trade at significant discounts to Disney, trading at 6x and 9.4x CY01E EBITDA, respectively. n New Management Team On the heels of the success of the ABC Network, Disney appointed Bob Iger as President and COO of the company. Iger was formerly Chairman of the ABC Group and most recently President of Disney International. We believe this is a critical appointment for Disney as it alleviates succession issues regarding. Disney also announced the formation of an executive management team including Michael Eisner, Bob Iger, Sandy Litvack, Tom Staggs, Peter Murphy (both newly promoted Senior Executive Vice Presidents) and the business unit operating heads. The new management structure will help the company focus on its cost-cutting initiatives and continue the turnaround of operating results. n FYQ1 Review Disney?s FYQ1 results were well ahead of expectations,
marked by robust growth in Media Networks and a respectable performance from the Theme Park segment. As expected, results were offset by continued sluggishness in Creative Content, driven by declines in both Studio Entertainment and Consumer Products. Overall, operating income increased 9% to $1.12 billion vs. $1.03 billion last year, well ahead of our $934 million estimate. EPS, excluding non-recurring items, increased 8% to $0.25 vs. $0.23 last year and was above our, and consensus $0.20 estimate on a revenue increase of 3% to $6.8 billion vs. $6.6 billion last year. n Divisional Highlights The standout performer in the quarter was Media Networks, with operating income increasing a robust 73% to $642 million vs. $371 million last year, well above our $465 million estimate. Broadcasting operating income increased a remarkable 120%. Both the ABC network and Disney?s owned and operated television station group benefited from the stronger than expected advertising market, as well as the incredible success of Who Wants to be a Millionaire, which Disney is exploiting beautifully and helped ABC maintain the top spot in primetime rankings. Improved ratings at Good Morning America and 20/20, as well as advertising revenue growth at the radio stations also impacted results. ESPN benefited from higher advertising revenues, subscriber growth and rate increases. Similarly, subscriber growth and a healthy cable advertising environment fueled by results at Lifetime, The History Channel and E! Entertainment Television. |