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To: SOROS who wrote (1625)	1/29/2000 11:26:00 PM
From: darkhorse30	Respond to of 35685

I don't feel quite so glum as you Soros, as a matter of fact, i disagree with the loose money premise. Real interest rates, at this moment, are historically high. I am probably in the minority around here, buy I feel AG has done a good job at the Fed, and if he has erred, in my opinion, it has been on the conservative side....which I am not all that sure is a bad idea, based on other economic times I have seen. People are spending money today because they feel confident about their futures, as opposed to fear that if they postpone purchases, the price will be higher. Anyhow, people will be in the Sprint PCS store on Tuesday, regardless of what AG says..........take care

To: SOROS who wrote (1625)	1/29/2000 11:43:00 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 35685

A few points soros. 1) Savings rate is irrelevent, USA citezens invest money and savings in IRA's and 401 k's. This is where Americans save their money. WHy would you save money in the bank at 4.9%? It is not effient use of capital, one of Japans problems. 2)Japans market was 2-3 times higher then todays market in the USA 3)Japans economy had real fundimental troubles including dwindiling population of workers, and slowing productivity. 4)Their Government created bubble by providing credit that was almost free in an attempt to manipulate their ability to export. Real Credit rates here are two high not to low 5)They learned the faults of Govnt controlled economies, and banks hand pupets. 6)USA has created more real economic gdp IN LAST 10 years then in predeceading 30. PC, cell phones, bio tech, fiber optics are not smoke and mirror business's. They have real fundimental export value and will drive the next 10 years of growth. 7)Ralgh Ancompora also said QCOM was his best pick this year? He is the class dounce and has done nothing but call bottoms as a contrary indicator 8)In 1990, 1987, 1998 etc huge 30% corrections were short lived, why would now be different. I dont disagree with you market sentiment, but I do disagree with the mentality that it will be some end all collapse. The big collapses were caused by REAL macro issues. In 70's it was inflation, in 1929 it was Tarrif barriers,Deflation and unbelievably poor central Government. In Japan it was a matter of Central planning gone amuck. It was also set off by the war in the gulf in 1990. BIG collapses are caused by extroneous events, like wars, embargo's, LTCM collapses. I see no major problem that a 20-30% re-evaluation wont correct. The stock market is not going to 6000 as long as the Baby boomers are in their prime. That is what is driving this market, just the same people who drove the Real estate market 10-15 years ago when they were all settling down. It isnt going to last forever, but it aint over yet either. In the worst casethe market will bottom and rally to test old highs, a good tradeable rally IMHO.

To: SOROS who wrote (1625)	1/30/2000 7:19:00 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

SOROS - Every time we get a downturn in the market, and we get them with a fair degree of seasonal regularity all the naysayers come out especially on CNBC. Barton Biggs is one of these regulars. I wonder what would have happened if you had bee none of his clients over the last few years? I heard Ralph Accompura just around last October I think before the market picked up! His view then was that the market had 'rolled over' or words to that effect and was on its way down. I also remember Ralph on CNBC on fine summers morning changing his mind from a day or so previously and saying " Yes it's a bear call..." to a somehat stunned Mark Haines and his team on Squak Box. I happen to like Ralph Accompura but I happen to think that Voltair has a much better feel for the things that interest me than Ralph does. Best of all I love those wise old guys that only buy value, that never borrow money, that don't use credit cards, that pay all their bills by close of business on Friday night, that never take any risks, that shun the risky and hedonsitic and spendthrift ways of the young......and that somehow have accumulated $bns without ever having risked anything at all especially in those meshuga tech stocks like CSCO, MSFT, AAPL, INTC, and of course QCOM. SOROS you have listed a great number of really negative comments...but there are an equally great number of positive comments if one wants to find them. If osme of the predictions of your quotes came true well even poor old mm with all his money in cash would be in trouble because their would be riots on the streets in the US and a whole slew of hugly medium sized wars going on around the world some of whose particpants have now got nukes and would no doubt be using them. LTCM would be minor to what we would see and banks would be failing wholesale. MM you might want to get a certain portion of your cash out in a mixture of gold and platinum bars and keep them in a hole in the garden. While you are at it see if you can buy something to defend yourself with as well plus six months canned food and go live near a good doctor and offer to share your hoard with him as a barter. Indded get the book "Bartering in Total Economic Collapses for Dummies". Now while all that has been going on waht about the following guys, Mr Clinton, Mr Gore and Mr Greenspan. These are the guys to focus on in your scenario. Do you think they will sit back and say .. " Alan what is that noise of gunfire outside on the street?" "Well Mr President we sort of had a little collapse of teh stock market and it has sort of gotten worse than I expected. I had thought we were going to only have a 30% correction which I have always thought was long overdue and I let it run andit sort of fed upon itself and now its a 60 % correction and still droppping and the banks just shut this morning after the futures were down over 50 points before trading on Monday morning. So the people can't get food so they are a bit upset" "Alan this is Al here. This may cost me my election chances you know if the people have just lost all their savings. Oh yes I know it was a bit overvaulued but thats not as bad as having the economy collapse" "Alan, Bill here, well Al may not get elected and I also have a bit of a problem now since it is really difficult to handle situations like this nicely. My reputation might be in tatters here. Alan please go do something...what do you mean its too late?" See I sort of think things won't get that far it just isn't worth it. Best regards, L

To: SOROS who wrote (1625)	1/30/2000 11:05:00 AM
From: RocketMan	Respond to of 35685

What worries me is for the first time since 1929-1932, American's personal savings are negative while real consumption has steadily gone up. Those savings statistics are all skewed. They don't count capital gains as savings, but they count taxes paid on capital gains against savings. If you compensate for those factors you get a savings rate that is equal to, or exceeds, savings rates in other countries. Here is a link that explains that. Go to the other links from that page and you will get a different picture than is painted by the gloom and doomers. ncpa.org Haven't all major declines (ie-recessions and depressions) been created by massive credit expansion? When the Nikkei was over 38,000 and the average PE was about 70, the banks began to raise interest rates. You are confusing the symptom with the cause. Credit expansion is usually the result of clumsy government interference with the free market. The cause of the Nikkei crash was not credit expansion, but the slowdown in the Japanese economy due to demographics (declining WWII birth rates) combined with Japanese govt interference in trying to prop up dying industries while stifling innovation. You might want to read through Harry Dent's Roaring 2000's, he makes an interesting case for global economic cycles based on demographics. Tell me if the NASDAQ slides 30% there won't be true panic selling with not anywhere near enough money to "buy the dip?" Maybe day traders or internet investors will panic, but I doubt if holders of the 401 funds will panic. They didn't in 98, when there was real reason to panic with the world economy in crash mode. And the institutions, which make up the bulk of the market, will make out like kings. Property values in Japan were also grossly overinflated, and when the interest rates rose and stocks crumbled, there was no money to pay back loans. Tell me there is not gross inflation in real estate in America right now. There is not gross inflation in real estate in America right now. There are imbalances between regions, based on availability and economics. And there are gaps between people's means and people's desires. Today's homes are larger, have more conveniences, etc. And go to the Carolinas or to the midwest and look at real estate prices. Don't lose faith in the American economy to pull off wonders for the next five to ten years. There will be bumps in the road, some major ones, but in the end this economy will continue to surprise.