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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (11537)	1/30/2000 2:12:00 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

model bearish or not? It is still interesting to me that Bob has continually used language that would be expected if his model gave a bear call. The minimal upside vs greater than 20% downside which could be much larger, running through all the causes of a bear market with a caller Saturday and indicates they all pretty much exists etc. I wonder if Bob's model gave a bear or intermediate correction call but he decided for a variety of reasons to not go all the way to all cash, or if his model stays in miserable condition but perhaps with sentiment not making 70% or other factors it just doesn't quite reach the all out bear point. Whatever the case might be it seems the logic is solid and the market is displaying so many excesses and topping action that maintaining an inflexible all in or all out binary call from his model was realized as not the most prudent move anymore Marc.

To: marc ultra who wrote (11537)	1/30/2000 10:06:00 AM
From: Allan Harris	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 15132

successfully calling a down market Has Bob called a down market? For years he has said that once the timing model flips bearish, he's 100% out and even maybe short. That not being the current case, the real time real money analysis would suggest that he has not yet called a down market. He told a caller on Saturday who was completely out of the market to dollar cost average back in up to the 40% allocation. This just doesn't add up to a bear call. Looking back from some vantage point in the future, from a market that is very much lower from current levels, some will undoubtedly refer to it as a call for a down market. Similarly, looking back from a vantage point of a much higher market, some will look at it as staying the course in a mother of all bull markets but using asset allocation to reduce risk. I go back and forth on whether this call is brilliant, or tepid. In either case, it is hard to make the case that it is his legacy call. There are many, many things that Bob Brinker can be praised for and many market timing successes over the years that belie his claim of not having a crystal ball. If we are going to raise our glasses in tribute, there are a lot of reasons to honor the man, a lot of accomplishments and wonderful memories, a lot of weekend afternoons on the beach with my Sony earphones, a virtual classroom in the surf. For these moments, I join in the toast and if this is indeed the final lecture from our esteemed professor, let me among those that offer sincere and heartfelt appreciation for all that he has done, and especially, for an education that will endure, always. A