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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (11538)	1/30/2000 9:51:00 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 15132

Marc: Didn't Sentiment used to be a "Warning" sign at 70% and not a fatal indicator? Perhaps the indicators are all very close (such as sentiment still being under 70%), but not at the "kiss of death to the bull market" level hence the hedged 40% position rather than an outright sell or short? Maybe he is waiting for them ALL to go negative to make his change? Anyway, his position is certainly consistent with what he has said and makes plenty of sense. I just don't understand all the people invested at 40% rooting for the market to go down. If they are hoping for getting in on a correction bottom, perhaps they are aware of how fast these are hit and then recovered from? Getting the absolute bottom there will be very hard. just a thought...

To: marc ultra who wrote (11538)	1/30/2000 3:11:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

"I wonder if Bob's model gave a bear or intermediate correction call" I wonder if Bob's model called a "market top"--hence, the declaration of limited upside vs 20% plus unknowable downside. The market could, conceivably continue a topping pattern for several months before it arrives at the cusp of a true bear plunge. Is the model sensitive enough to discern the difference between a top and the end-days of the topping process? Is this the reason for the 60% cash call. Interesting speculation. Ciao, David Todtman