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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Bakunin who wrote (97941)	1/31/2000 6:22:00 PM
From: John Hull	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 186894

MB, re:"Quick thoughts: With the exception of Japan, the geographic growth rates are positively correlated for the eleven quarters provided. Besides, the worry isn't cyclical variation, but secular change. The fact that you found any basic correlation should be hardly comforting. I reiterate that this basic correlation for three of four geographies is too general to extrapolate overall trends from any given geography trend. If this were a statistical analysis, you would get a pretty low R-squared. Secular change?...you're pretty easy to bait if you think there's been a fundamental change in computing demands. Are you putting all your cash into the Palm IPO? [consumer/corporate]It seems clear that corporate behavior has been a major factor in hardware underperformance, from Dell & Compaq to IBM. I welcome your input on expectations for consumer PC buying patterns. Wish I had better info for you here. Its a very tough market to predict. [incremental error margin]Errors arise from inexactness of accounting and reporting. I don't see how this applies to our necessarily inexact speculations. Sorry, you didn't get my hint. I'm suggesting that what you read in analysts reports may be worth questioning. Its not accounting, its basic methods for assessing the state of the markets. Remember, what the analysts choose to report is influenced by who pays for the report. [fundamentals less volatile]I expect you're right; I also expect I'm right about pricing and capacity. I assume pricing is moved by marginal demand, so even a small, domestic shortfall would have an effect. On the margin, sure, but the Intel pricing equation is complex. Has as much to do with our own bin splits and ramp expectations as it does with unit demand and market bin split requests. I would suspect the grey market exhibits the characteristics you mention much more prevalently. But that is often over low volumes and can be very deceiving. [Osha]My first post was a devil's-advocate challenge. I'm glad you've taken the time to respond; I wonder whether the Socratic approach will be the only one I can expect from you. How would you respond if you were me? ---get it?--- Any news on Willamette? There have been a lot of teasing just-you-wait posts by close-to-Intel posters on this thread. And I'm sure there will be plenty more...just you wait and see. regards, jh