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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lhn5 who wrote (25927)	2/2/2000 1:01:00 PM
From: Craig Stevenson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29386

Larry, "Craig I think you are simplifying my comments to buy buy buy at any any any price." Sorry, I must have been reading too much of the Yahoo thread. To paraphrase, "Any buy is a good buy". <g> I agree with you that some investors (maybe a lot of investors) might be interested in ANCR at current prices. However, where I disagree with many is that I want to see how a stock price can be justified. I am certainly aware that the market is a forward looking discounting mechanism, but at $40/share some amount of success appears to be built into the stock price already. Does that mean ANCR can't break out to new highs? Of course not, but a lot of Ancor's future rests with Sun. If Ancor stumbles (I don't think they will, but the possibility exists), ANCR will get punished for it. Old ANCR investors know all of this. It is the newbies who are being fed only one side. SI has been pretty good, but Yahoo has been a disaster. You remember when all the analysts were pounding the table on ANCR? All the longs on Yahoo were saying how these guys were VERY good at research, had connections throughout the industry, and basically knew more than anybody else. Now, after the downgrades, they are considered a bunch of know-nothing bozo's. You can't have it both ways. Or how about when a big fund (presumably Fidelity), or the institutions buy ANCR, pushing the price up. The people with Level II are quick to post this information, but you almost never see posts about when those same institutions or funds are on the sell side in a big way. Don't they watch Level II when the price goes down? (I happened to be watching ANCR on Level II when news of Ashok Kumar's revenue shortfall information hit, and I can tell you that the big boys were dumping in a BIG way.) Why doesn't that information get distributed, so the little guy has a chance? "Once a stock runs away from yuo it is extremely difficult to continue to evaluate it objectively." Quite true. That's why I have consistently posted the fact that my exit point on the way up was $18, and that I currently hold no position. That puts my views in total perspective for everyone reading my messages. They can read sour grapes into it (as some have done), or they can read one battle-scarred ANCR veteran's opinion into it (as others have done). My failure to hold onto my ANCR stock long enough is my own fault, not Ancor's. As far as the future goes, there are some things that seem reasonably sure. The Fibre Channel market is real and expanding. That is the ONE thing that Ancor has today that they NEVER had in the past. It is also the single biggest reason why I think they will succeed. As far as OEM opportunities go, based on a lot of the hype on Yahoo, I would guess EMC would be the next one. (And a big one, at that.) My reasons are many, but given the disparaging comments made about Brocade, and Ancor's road map to director class switches, EMC seems to be a pretty good fit for what Ancor has to offer. I also think that EMC would want to scale more quickly than anybody else, once again putting Ancor in the driver's seat. The biggest negative is their ownership of McData. Craig