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To: Kailash who wrote (47780)2/2/2000 12:25:00 PM
From: Lucretius  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 116759
 
thanks. i think goldshare bottom rt here or they go to the 1998 low, double bottom and soar off that. the near universal agrmt that gold and its shares are headed lower and heavy put buying says we have bottomed here, imo. besides Hutch and rarebird are calling for new lows.. that's always a buy signal -g- BWDIK? all that matters is that stocks crack. once that happens gold will rally even in the face of rate hikes just as it fell in the face of world-wide printing in 1998. the metal may fall at first but the shares should outperform it. as i said though.. wdik?



To: Kailash who wrote (47780)2/3/2000 8:25:00 AM
From: long-gone  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116759
 
Tuesday February 1, 2000; 10:28 AM EST

Nuclear Waste For All

In an effort to expand the market to smaller players, J.P. Morgan has invested $20 million in a new joint venture to put derivative analysis on the internet. Business Week reports that likely customers will be regional banks, middle-market portfolio managers, and other mid-sized clients of J.P. Morgan.

Does anyone remember the corporate losses caused by derivatives in the early 1990's? Do companies as large as Proctor & Gamble and American Greetings ring a bell?

Once again, we are in a period of great financial stability. These periods are wonderful for the selling of new "exciting" products by Wall Street firms. Money managers with great gains and even greater egos are played to by the big firms.

It's true that some of the smartest financial minds come not from Wall Street but from Main Street. However, more of the greatest financial minds are on Wall Street and they aren't working in little groups of three or four. They have the resources of hundreds of professionals all over the world... and they will beat Main Street in knowledge four out of five days in a week.

Main Street has many advantages. Among them is being far enough away from the shenanigans on Wall Street not to be affected by all of them. Main Streeters know stocks, bonds, and commodities. Main Streeters typically do not have PhD's in Physics and Math. In any business, the mantra is to stick to what you know.

Even if all the money managers on Main Street knew as much about Physics and Math as they know about the Super Bowl, it still wouldn't matter. The best risk analyst on Wall Street will tell you that their models do not explain everything. If they did, the company they work for would take over the world in about a month.

These risk models are only as good as the input they receive. What happens if Russia launches a nuclear warhead against another country? What happens if China decides to become more aggressive? These things can't be predicted with any (cont)
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