To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (152865 ) 2/2/2000 1:48:00 PM From: JRI Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
Chuzz, Rudy...IMO, Dell SHOULD produce a .01 "surprise" (I use that word lightly) during the earnings announcement this quarter (on Feb. 10th)...ie...that would produce the maximum result (PR-wise), stock-price wise for the 1st quarter..... As Chuzz stated, it may be viewed as an indication of greater demand than expected (at the end of the quarter)...or, more importantly (I think), that Dell is beginning to learn to set the bar low enough..so that they can not only "meet" consensus, but exceed consensus estimates (not by a large amount, which would be an indication of deception..) but by a reasonable amount...giving the Street a comfort level that Dell knows what its doing (concerning guidance...which, for better or worse, is viewed as a "promise" by much of the investment community)....Look at Cisco, Microsoft for the classic examples of how to do this.... Although I agree the game is silly, it exists and is powerful....and Dell just "meeting" the .16 this quarter would be an indication, to me, at least, that they don't quite get (yet) how this game is played....The stock needs a momentum boost here........01, even at the lower consensus, is likely the only thing to get it moving in the next few weeks..........Regardless, if current consensus estimates (for Q1) stay where they are (.17), I would agree with Kumar's quote....... that if Dell's management can't meet that "they should be taken out and shot"...Dell should exceed current Q1 consensus forecast...the question is: By how much? And if they can't answer that question (in the affirmative) ....then the last few months would have been for naught....