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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (6132)	2/3/2000 2:23:00 AM
From: pheilman_	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 13582

GSM & CDMA growth rates. The CDMA subscriber numbers are easy to come by, www.cdg.org. For subscribers, 9/97 to 9/99, y-o-y growth rates of: 276% and 157%. Strangely, the GSM subscriber numbers are not readily available. Almost all published values refer to EMC, a paid information service. Most of these quoted numbers are consistent. From 12/95 to 12/99, y-o-y growth rates of: 154%, 103%, 107% and 62%. The largest GSM subscriber numbers are 37 million in China, with just 2.5% penetration. So, if we want to curve fit and assume that CDMA will have the same shape S-Curve as GSM. This implies a 107% growth rate in CDMA subscriber numbers in 2000. The reduction in ASP will reduce the revenue growth. And the level of the curve is higher, 41 million (CDMA) vs. 33 million (GSM). So, I predict, CDMA subscribers will cross GSM subscribers in 2002 at 425M. 2002 is so far out in the future that this prediction is tenuous. But, based on a better curve fit that Jack Quinn's from Micrologic Research. Impact on Q, I can't wait to see what they dream up next. What other communication system needs to be optimized?