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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pheilman_ who wrote (6149)	2/3/2000 3:30:00 AM
From: Snowshoe	Respond to of 13582

eQ-COM Signs Data Services Agreement With Vodafone Airtouch - Vodafone Airtouch to Provide Pan-European Wireless Data Services to eQ-COM's Fleet Management Products - biz.yahoo.com

To: pheilman_ who wrote (6149)	2/3/2000 8:43:00 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

Paul, << Strangely, the GSM subscriber numbers are not readily available >> To be sure, they are. They are at the GSM Association (formerly GSM Mou) web site, right where the have always been and they are as detailed or probably more detailed than the CDG source you reference: gsmworld.com << Almost all published values refer to EMC, a paid information service >> There are numerous other sources and several available on the web if you know where to look (although not in detail, for which you pay a tidy sum. EMC is of course the official source retained by the GSM Association to maintain current subscriber numbers and forecast worldwide subscriber growth (all technologies). I'm not sure when this started. I've been crunching subscriber numbers since 94 and that was the case then. A high light of every GSM World Congress is the EMC presentation of these numbers. << So, if we want to curve fit and assume that CDMA will have the same shape S-Curve as GSM >> That may be a spurious assumption. I think it is. Let me say that I would not want to use an S-Curve to make a business decision to design and manufacture a product or staff a sales force and support resource for a segment of the digital mobile wireless industry based on one. The research firms do not use S-Curve's to plot subscriber growth. They start with a sophisticated database and do serious industry research. << So, I predict, CDMA subscribers will cross GSM subscribers in 2002 at 425M >> Well, you have come to a far different conclusion than any major research firm in the world that specializes in this game (EMC, Cahners In-Stat, DataQuest, Ovum, Strategis, Yankee Group, et al). Guess I better add to my already large Q position <g>. The CDMA subscriber base is generally forecasted (depending on the firm) to reach 20% of the cellular subscribers in the world by either 2003 or 2004, with GSM between 50% to 60% of the total subscriber base at that time. - EriQ -

To: pheilman_ who wrote (6149)	2/3/2000 10:39:00 AM
From: quidditch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

pheilman, during the past year, there were some references (I won't be able to find the post) as to the manner of calculating new subs. Of course, in comparing CDMA subscriber growth with that of GSM or TDMA (or IDEN, for that matter), it is all important for the methodology to be consistent in calculating the subsriber adds. Some posted that in Europe, GSM included in subscriber adds those existing subs who re-upped after a fixed-term contract had expired. I don't recall if any on the thread were able to confirm or reject this notion, but it is another potential variable in the delta. Steve

To: pheilman_ who wrote (6149)	2/3/2000 1:10:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

Paul, GSM content. Latest subscriber data and projections . Read at your own risk. <g> I am sorry that I did not have this information available when I responded back to you last evening, but it was not then published. This is what was presented to the Association yesterday. >> GSM ASSOCIATION GEARS UP FOR 3G The GSM Association's latest membership and customer figures were unveiled and paraded yesterday as the exhibition kicked off. Association membership has reached 409 members and associate members spread over 143 countries. The expectation that the customer base would rise to a quarter of a billion was surpassed by 4 million. EMC World Cellular Database who compile these figures predict that by December 2003 this number will have risen to three quarters of a billion. Currently this comprises 55 per cent of the world's wireless market and 65 per cent of the world's digital market. The biggest boost came from the growth of pre-paid customers which now accounts for 41 per cent of the total GSM subscriber base. Following the expansion of the GSM Association's membership last year to include 3G operators and suppliers to the GSM industry the Association announced a decision on Tuesday to extend membership to prospective GSM operators. Whereas previously membership was only open to companies who had already received licenses and spectrum allocations. The move is partly designed to accelerate the development of companies awaiting the award of Third Generation licences. Rob Conway, the CEO of the GSM Association, said that the move will "bring benefit and new expertise into the Association", and "ensure that those who are working on the development of advanced GSM systems (such as UMTS) can do so in full collaboration with our existing members." In addition the launch of the GSM Certification Forum-a voluntary organisation that will run alongside the mandatory regulatory body-was announced. Independent of both the GSM Association and GSM manufacturers, it is funded and co-owned by both parties. Designed to eliminate interoperability problems one eye is firmly fixed on eradicating any potential problems which may arise with the next generation of systems and products. Retiring Chairman of the Association, Michael Stocks-who makes way for James Healy in May-stated: "the programme will greatly reduce interoperability problems when handsets or terminals move from one network to another." << <eom> - EriQ -