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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (10199)	2/3/2000 8:02:00 PM
From: fuzzymath	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18929

This bond rally is spectacular, but also so very strange. The yield curve had been inverted at the long end for no apparent reason (that's a predictor of a recession according to my financial education). Then there was a beautiful rally gaining intensity in the week before the Fed announcement. Then, the Treasury's announcement that they'll be retiring bonds to lower the national debt sets the market on fire, and the bonds that no one wanted for the past 16 months are suddenly the hottest commodity in town! Yes, so tell me, where does the "Efficient Market Theory" come into this? The market is always rational? Really! That's why AIM can work. The market most definitely is not 100% rational. It can't be because not 100% of people are rational. Or, maybe stated more nicely, many many people who enter a long running bull market only when owning stocks (or tulips) has become a craze, simply don't have any idea of the true value of what they're buying compared with other investment vehicles (such as bonds or roses). I haven't written lately because of an overload of work. But I haven't forgotten you guys! Kevin