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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (75135)	2/3/2000 7:18:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Do let us know what you discover. In re taking a run, I'm afraid I couldn't wait; bought puts here #reply-12576606, sold them here #reply-12733998. Well underwater on the roll-down, but I am gratified with my lucky timing, as well as to have guessed at a relief rally, if not the full reality of what's happened in the market today. I agree there is no rush. Whatever this is (production problem, actual demand, pulling capacity preparing for Willamette/Mercedtanium/Foster/et al), the results should be similar: Intel maintains profits with (probably temporarily) high margins, as AMD takes share (speaking of which, don't they already have ca. 50% retail share?). Announcements of new processors goose stock; shipments of same goose stock; W2K silliness gooses stock; next quarterly report, showing decent contributions from IABG (higher-than-expected margins, as above) gooses stock. Around or before that point, I expect to have plenty of opportunity at even higher prices on the underlying. Mind you, I won't risk being caught without any puts at all, but I'm playing this one cautiously for another several weeks. Good luck, -mb

To: Earlie who wrote (75135)	2/3/2000 7:23:00 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, I am not a fan of Intel the company or the stock. Intel could be playing the game the companies in the auto industry do during model change over, when they dump their old models at any price when the new models are about to come to market. AMD certainly seems to be gaining market share, but it is going to be important for Intel to have "no" old Pentiums in inventory anywhere, when they come out with the new Pentium so they can "charge as high a price as possible". IMO, this is a dangerous game since if this is what they are doing they are playing it to far ahead of product introduction. That last design problem with RMBS tells me they have lost their "good" engineers, or the new management does not understand the engineering design to production transition risk. Now we have lots of interesting possibilities if there are production problems, if the market does not think it needs the new product, if the new product does not meet expectations, if the product has to high a cost, etc. Joan