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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SofaSpud who wrote (7090)	2/3/2000 10:47:00 PM
From: kingfisher	Respond to of 24927

Oil $30 perhaps $35 or blasting through $40 in 2002?Another analyst on CBC Business world this evening is suggesting $35 is possible this year.Some are calling for oil to hit $40 within 2 years.The physical evidence of significant drops in inventory has arrived.Other than Opec discipline their are other factors to suggest that these forecast are not at all unreasonable. First of all oil at todays levels is, with inflation taken into account less than the Nixon era. Second the Soviet Union is no longer a major exporter.They have ruined many prime fields by not producing them with an eye for long term productivity. Iraq may have also ruined the long term viability of some fields by overproducing.Production is now down big time. Venezuala may be a major producer but the decline rates in this heavy oil district are large. World consumption continues to increase. But even if these high prices continue for several years will investment start flowing into the Canadian oil and gas sector again?The last thing the industry needed is another high profile disaster.Canadian oil and gas executives should organize a meeting to discuss their future.If Berkley fails the investment community ,it will be a long time before money flows from Bay Street or Wall Street to the Canadian oil patch. Better disclosure with shareholders,more inovative methods of financing, mergers etc. need to be looked at. Richard

To: SofaSpud who wrote (7090)	2/4/2000 12:23:00 AM
From: Tommy D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24927

RBC's Analyst came out with revised numbers suggesting cash flow of $2.41 for fiscal 2000 but increase from previous numbers was not significant (ie. increase of $.09 for the year). However, increase in cash flow was not unlike those of other oil/gas companies in their analysis. Didn't lower the price target and maintained a buy. Their report was issued January 31 so if someone is leading analysts downward, they must have missed RBC. My read of the previous research from RBC was that the previous estimates did not include any amount for the current drilling so what has changed in the last 7 days to make these estimates invalid. BKP has got creamed in the last 2 weeks but so have other oil/gas stocks. Alberta Energy down from $48 to under $41 today illustrates the point. Time will tell but I am not sure why the action with BKP in the last few days compares to MEL and its horrible drop. Not disagreeing, I just don't see the connection. In any event, I bought a bunch more today so I really hope everyone is wrong. Regards TommyD