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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jmanvegas who wrote (66019)	2/6/2000 3:22:00 PM
From: jmanvegas	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 152472

Sunday Morning Thoughts: I'm sitting here looking at the latest IBD issue staring at the charts of the major averages. Now we all know how hot tech and biotech shares have been these last few months. And I'm sure many of us have made mucho money. And I'm wondering what could derail these giddy times we're in. And we all know that the NYSE consists of many "crappy stocks" from companies who make money, grow at 15% (who cares anymore), deliver essential goods or services (who cares about that anymore), and are ignored by Wall Street (lousy money flows). So what is one to do. You go with the flow. Because as investors or traders, we're only interested in one thing - making money. So we all pile into Naz shares hoping the Ponzi scheme can go on forever. I'M NOT SAYING IT WON'T!!! AND I'M NOT SAYING TO GO OUT AND BUY VALUE STOCKS!!! But I'm back to staring at the charts and I see that the Dow (who cares about this anymore either) hit its 200 DMA, the S&P hit its 200 DMA, and the Naz is suspended in air - so far away from its 200 DMA that it feels like a jet plane about to lose its stabilizers and go out of control, spiraling downward. (I'm sorry about the reference to the Alaskan air tragedy but it was an analogy that I quickly and stupidly came up with.) And then again, after reviewing the charts again for the third time, I realized that the Naz has disconnected itself from the Dow and S&P averages, and maybe we are poised to go much higher and the Naz is telling us something that the other averages are not. So this must be the new paradigm. And that is why these are very tough times to make rational investment decisions. And that is why I'm confused, after spending 25 some years investing in everything from stocks to commodities to real estate. NOW I'M NOT SUGGESTING TO ANYONE TO SELL QCOM!!! I'm a long-term holder in this stock as well as JDSU and others, having been lucky enough to get in early - therefore I have the capacity to ride out any turbulence that may be on the horizon. But I do see turbulence. I see distribution in here. I see 10% down and up moves within a major average like the Naz that takes 1 week in duration. It's now called internet time. All these new paradigm phrases I have to get use to. I see so many IPO's coming to market it makes your head swim. I see so many of last year's IPO's getting ready for release of locked-up shares that it makes your head swim again. I see piggy venture capitalists bringing everything and anything to the market, waiting the 6-month period and unloading their shares laughing all the way to the bank. And I'm wondering what could be the catalyst that could break this market over the near-term, because we always need a catalyst to wake people up and smell the coffee. Something that could plunge the Naz and sort of normalize it. Could it be the Fed that could shock and surprise the markets at anytime? Could it be margin requirements being jawboned to very high limits taking out the momo players and quickly reducing speculation? We don't want to talk about speculation - geez, companies that gross $8-10M per year valued at $25-30B is normal, isn't it because we are in a new paradigm - such B.S IMO. Could it be a company like AMZN that can't make a dime, will never make a dime, is in the lowest margined, most competitive business you can be in, and Wall Street still has a love affair with it -you know those investment bankers - no multi-million dollar bonuses XMAS time without doing more deals to keep companies afloat. And if AMZN goes - so goes the "over-valued" internet and the Naz - will Wall Street let this happen? Who would be able to afford $1-2 million 1000 square foot apartments (dumps) in Manhattan? Could it be wage inflation? I can't find a decent employee at any store anymore that gives a damn about the customer - can you? Well - that leads us back to buying everything on the internet but that is total B.S. Just go to WMT or COST or HD on the weekends - you can't get a parking spot. And then I start to stare at the charts again - I can't get them out of my head. It used to be we would rally, back track to breakout points, rally, etc. And I'm looking at the 200 DMA of the Naz - it's near the original breakout point of around 3000-3100 and I say to myself, a correction to this level is reasonable, isn't it. But these are not reasonable times - maybe we will never again see the Naz correct back to its 200 DMA. But we have seen it before - haven't we? And so it goes - and so it goes. The merry-go-round of investing. As an aside, I'm keeping my QCOM through thick and thin because I believe in the wireless revolution and I believe in CDMA & HDR, and I believe in QCOM's business model, and I believe they will dominate someday. But we are in for turbulent times and QCOM will not be spared - no stock will. The winds are starting to blow - it's full turbulence ahead - just hold on to your hats folks. We have not seen the last of the 200 point down days in Naz. Just some Sunday morning thoughts. Good luck all in your investment endeavors. jmanvegas