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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jmanvegas who wrote (66114)	2/6/2000 3:43:00 PM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 152472

And I'm wondering what could be the catalyst that could break this market over the near-term How about the failure of a biggie like Goldman Sachs who supposedly has serious bond and gold problems. Not saying it will happen just some "Sunday thoughts". lurking... lurqer

To: jmanvegas who wrote (66114)	2/6/2000 4:01:00 PM
From: Ruffian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

WALL ST WEEKAHEAD-Bond market could damp tech rally By Jennifer Westhoven NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks will offer amusement park thrills this week, as investors looking for a tech-stock rally also gird themselves for any lurches in the troubled bond market, analysts say. Technology stocks rode victorious out of last week, with the Nasdaq Composite Index surging 357.07 points, its biggest weekly point gain ever, to close Friday at a record 4244.14. The index, a tech stock gauge, rose 9.19 percent on the week, second only to a 9.54 percent gain posted during the week of October 11, 1974, according to technical analysts. The Dow industrials and Standard & Poor's 500 index also moved higher on the week. The gains came despite an interest rate hike last week and heavy turbulence in the Nasdaq the previous week. ''We've had two sharp corrections (on the Nasdaq) and the year is only five weeks old. We seem to have had a worthwhile, sustained rally since the market turned around on Monday,'' said Annette Geddes, managing director for M.D. Sass in New York. ''That's the way bull market corrections are: very sharp, hideously frightening, and they don't last very long. We had whiplash last week between the positive earnings reports and the inverted yield curve,'' she said. Internet equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:CSCO - news), the world's third-largest company by market capitalization, is expected to post strong earnings this week. Wall Street is currently forecasting profits of $0.23 a share compared to $0.18 in the year-ago quarter, according to First/Call Thomson Financial. The Cisco report, due after the closing bell Tuesday, combined with growing enthusiasm for the release of Microsoft Corp.'s (NasdaqNM:MSFT - news) new Windows 2000 operating system February 17 and expected positive comments from an analysts' meeting with Sun Microsystems (NasdaqNM:SUNW - news) in San Francisco set a rosy stage for the week, technology analysts said. Other companies handing in report cards this week include Dell Computer Corp. (NasdaqNM:DELL - news), MCI WorldCom Inc. (NasdaqNM:WCOM - news) and insurance companies Aetna Inc. (NYSE:AET - news), AXA Financial Inc. (NYSE:AXF - news), CIGNA Corp. (NYSE:CIG - news) and Allstate Corp. (NYSE:ALL - news). Dell warned in January that its earnings would not match Wall Street's expectations. But the shortfall is not expected to hurt broader sentiment as the market has had time to price in the lower earnings. The personal computer-maker is expected to post profits of $0.15 a share, matching the amount it earned in the same quarter in 1999, according to First Call. Generally, the 1999 fourth-quarter has been a happy surprise -- one of the best in the past 13 years, according to I/B/E/S. The earnings analysis firm said the strong numbers mean that Wall Street's analysts corps, on average, have jacked up their estimates for each quarter of fiscal 2000. The Street had been expecting a quarterly profit growth rate in the high teens, but I/B/E/S analyst Joseph Abbott said that growth of over 20 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500 index now ''appears to be a certainty''. But the bond market could throw a monkey wrench into any rally, with some key economic data on the horizon. Monday afternoon consumer credit is expected to show an $8.7 billion increase for December, adding to November's stunning three-fold increase of $15.6 billion as shoppers financed holiday spending sprees with credit cards. Street estimates range widely for this figure, from $4 billion at Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown to $12.6 billion at Argus Research. Fourth quarter productivity is expected Tuesday to show a 3.7 percent gain, compared with 4.9 percent in the previous period. Unit labor costs will be released at the same time. ''The productivity number should confirm ... that suddenly productivity has been kicking in with a vengeance,'' said Michelle Clayman, chief investment officer at New York-based New Amsterdam Partners. But she cautioned that both numbers could hurt markets if either waved red flags on inflation. January retail sales data are due Friday. Analysts polled by Reuters expect on average a gain of 0.6 percent. Supply of long-term debt has been drying up since the U.S. Treasury's decision to issue less and buy back some $30 billion of its outstanding debt. As a result, yields on long-term debt are now lower than on shorter-term debt. The government is due to hold a five-year note auction Tuesday, a 10-year note auction Wednesday and a 30-year auction Thursday. More Quotes and News: NYSE:CIG - news Aetna Inc (NYSE:AET - news) Allstate Corp (NYSE:ALL - news) AXA Financial Inc (NYSE:AXF - news) Cisco Systems Inc (NasdaqNM:CSCO - news) Dell Computer Corp (NasdaqNM:DELL - news) MCI WorldCom Inc (NasdaqNM:WCOM - news) Microsoft Corp (NasdaqNM:MSFT - news) Sun Microsystems Inc (NasdaqNM:SUNW - news) Related News Categories: US Market News

To: jmanvegas who wrote (66114)	2/6/2000 5:03:00 PM
From: Sawtooth	Respond to of 152472

Thought-provoking Sunday Morning Thoughts, jmanvegas. You've clearly been doing a lot of thinking. <<So this must be the new paradigm. And that is why these are very tough times to make rational investment decisions. And that is why I'm confused, after spending 25 some years investing in everything from stocks to commodities to real estate.>> I don't know about new paradigms in the market but I think I do understand your concern and mystification with valuations. As a long time B&H, value man meself, I've given the same subject you discuss some serious consideration. All I know is that many of the value players got out of the market at around Dow 6,500 and have been sitting on the sidelines in bewilderment and some disappointment over missing the huge profits that are being made (at least paper profits, anyway) by their new-to-the-market friends at the fitness center or wherever. I can boil it down to a few things; all IMO and OMO, of course: 1. Many in todays market likely give hardly a second thought to a company with a three or four digit P/E. 1,400 X earnings? Must be a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor! You and I hold Qcom; how do we account for that investment decision when considering the PEG for the Q based on todays numbers? Is that decision rational and based on what we've learned over the years in good times and bad? Many in todays market don't have recollections of reading the WSJ and seeing most of the stocks with P/E's of 3 or 5 or 11. 2. Many people today are flush with cash; at least relative to the past. The current strong economy has been very, very good to many people. They've got most of the "stuff" they need and are frequently generous in using their wealth to help others. Now, what to do with the rest? A 6% CD? No; how about some Nok? Everybody else has some. 3. Investing in common stocks has become part of almost everyones personal financial program. The ratio of people I know who are in the market today vs. those who are not is probably close to inverse what it was just ten years ago. And if they're not in directly, they're in via direct mutual funds or indirectly via deferred comp programs that are in mutual funds, etc, etc. 4. Demographics are such that the baby boomer bump is in its peak earning and investing years. The first place many think of putting "excess earnings" is in the market. 5. Many in that age group and in the age group comprising new investors are well aware of the way technology (internet, PDA's, networks, sats, fiber, ...) are changing the way we live virtually right before our eyes. It is difficult to think of many investment opportunities that have more potential for huge growth, although the valuation factor is likely frequently lost in the enthusiasm. 6. Alternative investment returns appear trifling in comparison to the return on common stocks over the course of this LT bull. Diversification (asset allocation) makes common sense but hardly anyone wants to be totally out of the market these days. There will certainly be bumps along the way, as there always has been; some, down and out fingernail biters. But I don't see an end to what we see today until there is a curtailment to liquidity flowing into the market. Obviously, this market is liquidity driven, not value driven; simple supply and demand. So, until there is a very significant change in the amount of cash coming in, I think the bull will continue to run; valuations be damned. Not that I like that but it's the way that I see it. I could be all wrong and I've been wrong before; and that's part of what makes a market. But when the day comes (and it will) that the liquidity dries up, many of those trying to squeeze through the exit will be stuck on the wrong side of the gate. And it will be ugly. In the meantime, we complain about the poor performance of stocks that only double in a year and keep pumping that extra cash into the market. A three or four digit P/E? New Paradigm? Is it worth the risk of taking profits and missing the next major leg as so many did at Dow 6,000 - 7,000? I offer no answers as, in the end, everyone makes their own decisions. And mine, right now, is to be in the market with a long term view. Enough Sunday Afternoon Thoughts from me. Time to go dig out my well worn copy of Philip Fisher's Common Profits from Uncommon Stocks, first published in the late 50's. Not applicable in the market today? I'm not so sure. Maybe not today, but down the road? I think so. Now, what should I buy when the market opens tomorrow? ; ) Take care, jmanvegas. .........VVVVVVVVVVVV

To: jmanvegas who wrote (66114)	2/6/2000 9:00:00 PM
From: djia101362	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

jmanvegas, your "sunday morning thoughts" remind me of your "tuesday evening thoughts" on 1/25, the day QCOM announced earnings. you were probably the most vocal person that day stating the QCOM was going to get pounded. perhaps you were correct in that QCOM did get pounded but i don't think you were expecting QCOM to be back at the $140 level only 2 weeks later. if i recall correctly, you were of the impression that QCOM would be pounded and not recover for quite awhile. if your time frame for "awhile" was 2 weeks, than you were correct but somehow i don't think that is what you had in mind at the time. thanks for your insight but if your "sunday morning thoughts" are anything close to your "tuesday evening thoughts", you might want to start rethinking.

To: jmanvegas who wrote (66114)	2/6/2000 9:15:00 PM
From: waverider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

A good inner pondering. But remember your very vocal concern about Q getting destroyed after earnings. We have recovered most of that very quickly and the dip allowed many to pick up shares on the cheap. Try to stay focused on the big picture. No matter what you may be feeling, you can't predict this market. Last week should have proven that to you. Relax and stay with the great companies you are probably all ready invested in. Try not to worry so much. Rick <H>

To: jmanvegas who wrote (66114)	2/7/2000 2:07:00 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Response to "Sunday Morning Thoughts" (using paragraphs !). Just want to make one big point regarding possible ridiculous over-valuation of the stock market right now : If you ever listen carefully to various mathematical approaches used to "prove" that stocks are "sky high" right now, they usually boil down to one key point -- some sort of "yield" on stocks is way out of whack with yields on bonds (or 10-year notes, or T-bills). I hear these analyses (this is the "guts" of the famous Federal Reserve "secret" model for stock market valuation) and think : WHAT THE @%! makes anyone think that yields right now* in the bond market are absolutely the correct thing to use to determine stock market valuation levels ??? Personally (as some of you know), I think current interest rates (both at the short end of the yield curve, and the long end) are WRONG WRONG WRONG. (And, I am backing up this "bluster" with a very large position in the interest rate futures market). For a while now, I have thought that one thing the very high level of stocks is predicting is that U.S. interest rates are about to PLUNGE. If they plunge, then all of these "models" would show stocks NOT over-valued at all (at these levels). But, ironically, if and when interest rates plunge, stocks might go much higher from where they are today; and then -- actually be over-valued ... Jon.