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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan P who wrote (453)	2/6/2000 11:49:00 AM
From: Larry S.	Respond to of 972

Dan, You are right here and in your off-line email, the GMI/GB ratio this week, using Barron's numbers, was 1.09, not 1.9 as I typed. Thank you for pointing it out. Cheers, Larry

To: Dan P who wrote (453)	2/12/2000 6:23:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 972

Dan, et al, I noticed in Barron's this week that gold sector funds again regained the top spot. The weekly data from the "Scoreboard" is: One Week Y-T-D U.S. STOCK FUNDS 1.04 1.18 U.S. BOND FUNDS -0.3 -0.19 TOP SECTOR/Gold Oriented 11.93 0.43 BOTTOM SECTOR/Financial Services -4.64 -9.19 I should also mention, before providing the update of the GMI ratio bit, that the "Commodities Corner" in Barron's this week is devoted to gold and gold stocks and presents a bullish story. However, I think the Author present a much less bullish view of the present producer hedging situation and fails, almost entirely, to mention the future impact of the past gold carry trade transactions. Now, the update of the GMI/POG ratio: On 2/09, the Barron's GMI was 365.43, up from the previous week's 319.57. With the POG up to 311.50(2/10), the ratio was 1.17, down slightly from the previous week's 1.19. A year ago the ratio was 1.10. Note that the drop in the ratio would have been substantially larger if Barron's used Friday's close instead of Thursday's close to compute the GMI. Last week, I estimated that the ratio would have been 1.295. The low ratio suggests continued pessimism in the market. I suggest that this is a good sign - crawling a wall or worry. Cheers, Larry