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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (153145)	2/7/2000 3:44:00 PM
From: TigerPaw	Respond to of 176387

I just got back from the frigid northland. I leave for a few days and y'all let the market go to heck. Did Greenspan catch cold or somthing? TP

To: JRI who wrote (153145)	2/7/2000 4:36:00 PM
From: edamo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

john "best performance" jim kelley "fool me once" why now is it more effective for dell management to defend the image and future of the company and its stock, when on 2/17/99, when the first wave hit and knocked the legs out of the confidence in dell, was a similar thought shouted down as absurd? guess it's better to wait for the tsunami, and hope "mikey" and "kevin" can tread water? damage control at a corporate level always more manageable when the damage is within control........when a situation gets out of hand, more emphasis is placed on "finger pointing" then repair" is dell at this point...in retrospect why did "mortie" step aside? just another point to ponder, perhaps a bit premature, but stuff ages quickly on the street!

To: JRI who wrote (153145)	2/7/2000 9:21:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi JRI. You and Angel made a great call based on the IDC numbers. re: I do expect Dell will make that .17 silly... Referring to Q1, TM in the CC stated that the Q would be flat to Q4 as they don't see business picking up in time to rescue it. I would assume they re-iterate this fact on Thursday. TM also stated GM would drop into the teens with ASP's flat to up for the year. You can see what's happening here. A huge problem is RAMBUS. Dell has no high margin Optiplex systems because the yields on RDRAM are so low that they can't release new products. The extraordinary cost premium of RDRAM will also likely limit sales momentum on the GX300 once they start taking orders. It looks like they have only released 2 workstations and one highend Dimension where the volumes are much lower and RIMM module availability is adequate to satisfy demand. The latest register.com rumor that yields have fallen from 25% to 10% may not be completely accurate but it indicates a trend in the wrong direction. I think that a year ago, Dell fully expected this new product cycle to be fully ramped by now... which it clearly is not. This will likely create a drag on earnings for a while until either yields improve dramatically or Dell systems with new memory architectures slowly trickle out later this year and early next. This product transition indeed is not going well and Dell can thank Intel for that. With the margins on the old BX based platforms compressing fast, it will probably take a few quarters before Dell recovers. So, now that performance is suffering (hopefully it is short term), perceptions take on an increasingly important role in keeping the stock ~100B mkt cap. MEATHEAD

To: JRI who wrote (153145)	2/7/2000 9:43:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 176387

RE: DELL's situation and the CC I am not expecting DELL's stock to melt down further as a result of the upcoming earnings report. In fact, we have already been told what to expect and I think that will be the performance that is reported (approximately). The CC will not be that important -IMO - because even if DELL is very upbeat their words are not going to be accepted as in the past. Of course, huge news could move the stock up or down depending on whether it is positive or negative. Analyst and other people are going to be waiting to see if DELL is getting its management communications act together. There has to be proof! Credibility has been spent with this huge Q4 miss! DELL badly misestimated the impact of Y2K on their 4th quarter earnings. They also misestimated the impact of the component squeeze on their 3rd quarter results. What needs to happen here is DELL management needs to get back on top of this dynamo. After, misperceiving the impact of the component issues in the third and 4th quarter, the question remains are they continuing to misperceive what is happening? Again words are not enough! It is clear that DELL is investing heavily in businesses outside of DELL. These are largely chosen from among the new crop of startup businesses in the internet and storage systems market. They may also be investing in network appliance companies. These additional investments require a great deal of attention. At the same time their core business is growing faster than any other business its size (25B) has ever grown. This is a dilution of attention. I suspect that what is happening is that DELL's executive management is growing too thin. It needs to be beefed up and processes installed to monitor the course of the business daily weekly and monthly. The events of the last two quarters lead me to believe that sometimes no one is looking for a precious week or two at what is happening. Remember, this quarters miss is about 10 days worth of business. Easier said than done....they might get a Pfeiffer or a Mason on their management team if they are unlucky. <G> There are some signs that DELL may recognize this executive management problem. They have hired Vanderslice and more recently an experienced Investor Relations manager. Unfortunately, they did too little too late in addressing the lack of management depth on the bench. The worse thing that could happen going further would be another huge miss in either direction poorly and tardily communicated. The best thing that could happen is an immediate improvement in communications with the shareholders. I do not expect the stock to do much until confidence in DELL's communications is restored barring significant news events. JMO JK