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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bearded One who wrote (2655)	2/7/2000 6:48:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

AMZN's customer list is it's major asset imo...i'm just trying to figure out what could possibly be salvaged from the bankruptcy. i hear they're about to issue another billion in convertible bonds...which explains why the 'analysts' were falling over each other upgrading it in the wake of it's monumental losses. the pyramid btw. not only feeds the advertisement based models, but also the infrastructure companies. it all hinges on a continuation of the IPO boom, which in turn hinges on a continuation of the mania. same is obviously in full swing, and has by all accounts become central to American culture. imo the degree to which everything depends on the bull market's (well, for the handful of stocks participating in same) continued existence is generally under-estimated. 1/3 of YHOO page views concern it's financial pages...the stock market gains (which are by their very nature ephemeral, since it is impossible for everybody to sell at the top) induce households to take on debt at an unprecedented level...the ratio of debt to disposable income has never been as high as it is now (105%). corporations aren't any better...corporate indebtedness is at an all-time high. as it were, it's also the bull markets fault, as listed companies have spent 125% of their reported earnings in '98 to buy back stock (i.e. they had to take on more debt to buy back stock and even more debt to satisfy their capital spending requirements). now while i find all of this rather troubling, it is actually an aspect of the investment mania favoring the bulls, not the bears. the reason is that the authorities, first and foremost the Fed, will do everything in their power to keep the bull market alive...whenever something untoward happens, there's the implicit GUARANTEE that Alan will bail the speculators out. as long as no reasons for a system-wide collapse can be espied, it will therefore be perfectly safe to buy each and every dip, no matter how ridiculously stocks are valued. that doesn't mean that there won't be any big corrections anymore, but it is noteworthy that the market hasn't even once had a true 'wash-out' since '98...