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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (66219)	2/7/2000 11:01:00 PM
From: Stu R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

SB: I do not believe I am "math challenged" but I am having difficulty following your analysis. My first problem is the comparison of a debt investment to an equity investment. In the case of the tbill investment, assuming interest rates remain the same and it is held 30 years to maturity I believe the value of the investment would be worth exactly what I paid with little chance of loss. My return will be 6.5%/year. In the case of the equity investment it is not so simple. We don't know exactly how much our company's earnings will grow for how long or how fast. So, a common view of value would be to project anticipated earnings (or cash flow) over a period of time and then discount it to the present with a rate that should be an appropriate measure of risk. I don't see where you have done this calculation which makes it impossible to make a comparison. My personal view on why I think QCOM will make a good investment over the next 5-10 years is that I don't think the market has accurately factored in the amount of earnings that will be generated, nor the length of time they will continue to grow. Therefore, I believe the earnings numbers put into the valuation models are too low and the discount rates are too high reflecting more risk than I believe exists for a variety of reasons. Without some discussion of the valuation factors I have pointed out I am having trouble finding your point logical or persuasive. Stu

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (66219)	2/8/2000 9:00:00 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Skeeter this is NOT 1929. We have a Federal reserve with a clue, we have a much broader base of investor. There is no doubt that at some point we will have a scarry nasty correction just like in 98, and 87. However I could argue the reverse point at how quickly stocks like MSFT, INTC, NOK etc recovered after those 30% corrections. Do not forget the 1929 crash would not have been as severe if not for very poor federal Government reaction, and fiscal policy. If you use Japan as a better Example its taken 10 years to get certain stocks back to 1987 levels, and that was coming from a much higher mania. I am not saying that is an imposibility. However I feel it is unlickly at this juncture. I am a believer in the demographic components that are driving this market(the same that drove the one in the 50-60's). We still have some gas in the tank. I critisize the messenger because his IDOL is Bill Fleckenstein. This guy has been terribly irresponcible, I have personally corresponded with him and speak from personal experience.