To: Mike McFarland who wrote (245 ) 2/9/2000 5:43:00 AM From: Mike McFarland Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1142
Good morning biotech enthusiasts. I awoke early from my slumber, as I nearly always do, and was thinking what I would want to communicate to my Dad if he had his new computer and came across this board, looking for biotechs in which to invest. This is what I'd say: There was an incredible sale going on last year in biotechland, a clearance sale, all must go, 90% off. If you bought then, like a handful of us here on SI did, then you have terrific gains and everything that is coming now as the internet momentum shifts sectors is gravy. Shareprices now are probably fair, with only a few bargains still mispriced. We are now heading into the time when things start to get expensive, certainly a few of the familiar names in genomic stocks have already got to that point. I would also remind my Dad that when his money manager was putting him in Lucent and Microsoft at the end of last year, I had dropped off the investor package from Genzyme Molecular Oncology--it was my first and last stock pick for Dad--and it was a five dollar stock at that time. Now GZMO is still a bargain in the low teens, but folks should have bought it at $5 (I bought around $5, and more just under $10 a couple weeks ago, plus a quick flip of a few thousand from 8 to ten just the other day--and as always, I flipped out too early <g>). Gosh, what was my point...now I'm getting sleepy again. Rats, lost my thought. Oh, I remember now--I also bought TGEN below $2...and recently added on the way up, paying up as much as $7. But I would not want Dad to suddenly trade his Lucent and MSFT for TGEN and GZMO right now--and the reason is this: Those of us who have been in biotech these past months have a nice cushion if a market correction comes (and it probably will, probably in Spring or Summer after a couple more Fed rate hikes). That cusion means I wont get shook out of my shares if things dip--whereas a person buying now might not have enough of a gain by the time summer rolls around. Does that make any sense? (Disclaimer for the day--my trading cash is in TGEN right now, and I think we can go to the lower teens in short order, even without any new press releases. I have choked up the Yahoo thread with my recent thoughts on that one, if anybody has any feelings about TGEN speak now or forever hold your peace!) To be sure, part of the reason I'm posting here is that I see the thread is on the hot list--and yeah, I want to do some cheerleading for my own stock picks, we all do that. One more thought... Lately I have noticed that some of the biotech guys here on SI are getting a bit cranky--I saw a fella get chewed to pieces on another thread. Not too nice, I would say this: Let's get over ourselves okay kids? The internet momo players who have moved over to biotech now are not ranting about how smart they are. There is money being made, that is the bottom line--a nice artifact of that is great funding is coming to biotech, a batch of IPOs and secondary offerings, the money is flowing--so cures and therapies eventually will come from thisfroth--it's a good thing! Let's not get cranky with each other, live it up! Happy trades!