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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (153228)	2/8/2000 11:50:00 AM
From: stock bull	Respond to of 176387

Darrell, re:<<An "underperform" would imply an ever increasing share in a decreasing or flat market. Their comments are completely illogical.>> It may also mean that Dell will underperform relative to the Market or other available tech investments such as semi's, networkers, etc. Stock Bull

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (153228)	2/8/2000 11:51:00 AM
From: SecularBull	Respond to of 176387

Darrell, I think that the argument is that as DELL gains share it moves ever increasingly towards matching industry revenue growth numbers. If that's 17%, then Dell will only be growing that quickly. This is a far cry from where it has been. Do not misunderstand me, though. 17% year-over-year is a ton of growth (especially given in dollar terms), but that rate of growth is not what drove DELL to it's old heights. BUT THE EQUATION IS CHANGING... I think that the real problem with the analysts' views is that they're not looking at Dell's other businesses as much. Everything is centered around PC growth. Kemble brought up a good point when he said that the future of DELL was in it's other businesses (if I understood him correctly). These businesses are hidden assets that are likely to take DELL, the stock, on its next journey. If I see that start to pan-out, I'm going to buy back into DELL. That's why I remain here, watching... The PC is going to have to evolve, IMHO, to more of a net-centric device. I hate to admit it, but Larry Ellison's view a few years ago may be right. I think that SUNW has done a better job of capitalizing on this idea than ole Larry-boy did. He was too busy yachting around. I have to flip the bird to people that think that Michael and Company have done a bad job in the last year. I just don't agree with that thinking. They were fighting an impossible battle of trying to manage expectations, and any investor that doesn't understand that needs to wake up. I will say that I am miffed that they weren't more forthcoming with the pre-annoucement (earlier), but that's only a small part of good management. I think that Michael has been quietly aligning the company for the next big move. I hope to jump back in before it takes off, but I haven't seen the signs just yet. Regards, LoF

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (153228)	2/8/2000 3:06:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Darrell - I think you are missing the forest for the trees. These analysts have begun to see what many on this thread have been saying for a while - DELL is likely to be a victim of its own success in the PC business unless it moves "outside of the box", and DELL management has said and shown just the opposite - they are going to focus on the box (although the 2 recent quarters show some problems even with that strategy). Let's look at the rock and hard place DELL is between. They have developed a model that made the commercial PC business unprofitable for their main competitors. But unlike DELL, all of those competitors have a majority of their revenues in areas where DELL does not compete. One possible outcome would be for those companies to just cede the market to DELL but that is unlikely, and it's not what happened. Instead they determined that they would move to a model where their commercial desktop business became an adjunct to their systems business rather than a growth or revenue leader. We have now seen IBM, CPQ and HP all moving to a model that drops their desktop ASP by nearly half over the next 12 months. This will have the effect of dropping desktop revenue as a proportion of overall corporate profits while providing a compelling value to customers and making the commercial lines profitable (or at least reducing current losses). For these companies, a 30% decline in revenues from commercial desktops, if combined with decent unit numbers, would have a minor impact on overall business, and might even improve the earnings numbers. Where does that leave DELL? With roughly 80% of its revenue in that segment, DELL can hardly afford a 40% revenue hit. DELL had been projecting 40% revenue growth and has guided down to 30% growth - their competitors are projecting 10% to 15% growth. For DELL to continue gaining market share in the face of these new commercial desktop price points, they will need to field similar products themselves. This could easily mean (will almost certainly mean) that DELL's ASP will go down, and unit growth of even 50% might produce revenue growth much less than 30% - and the notion that DELL will continue to gain share at historic rates is already suspect. They would actually have to increase their historic rate of share penetration to achieve their lowered revenue goals. Under that scenario, the analyst's comments are not contradictory.

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (153228)	2/8/2000 8:05:00 PM
From: kemble s. matter	Respond to of 176387

Darrell, Hi!! RE: Why even comment if you can't present your case as backed by data and not just philosophy..."against a headwind of slowing growth (which is not defined)...Dell will not perform." Great post...thanks...And, my statement concerning DELL's future units of 47 million by 2004 was for the year 2003-2004....Considering DELL's 12 million this year...I don't think we'll have a problem making money...The efficiency that this model can drive will only pressure everyone else...Take CPQ...see how desperate they are...They're trying direct again...And, yes the B2B initiatives that DELL can provide with their service and expertise is an area I believe Michael and Kevin have addressed in the past... What really amazes me though is the lack of discussion of why DELL is building and hiring...They downgrade this stock and ignore the history (which Sig posted awhile back...and has for years now) of why DELL builds and hires..You'd think they'd give DELL credit for where they have taken this company when expansion has been shown in the past...But, then Rudedog does have a point...DELL has to put the numbers up...And, surely management has to be more boastful with their direction of the "going forward"...Certainly if there is one thing that bothers me is the conservative tone in their presentations...I've written that "it ain't braggin' if ya can prove it.." And no matter how many times they talk of their superiority in this industry...There are others out there that should hear it...What they have accomplished and what they plan on accomplishing...They should take a % of Muhammad Ali and sprinkle it around ...Just my biased opinion... :o) Best, Kemble