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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11786)	2/8/2000 12:15:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Good comments. Japan collapsed in the '90s and we sure did well. We have a new person posting really good economic analysis on our site. Here is his most recent. suite101.com From the email address he left me, I have reason to believe it is Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director of ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute). Anyway, his writing and analysis are great! businesscycle.com

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11786)	2/8/2000 12:17:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

It seems like the number of posts per hour has dropped off quite a bit today. I suppose everyone is waiting anxiously for the newsletter to arrive. With the understanding that I have not yet received the newsletter, I'll set forth this guess as to its contents: The cash reserve will remain essentially unchanged or move up slightly. The newsletter will emphasize that the current high level of market risk is likely to remain. There will be no short term solutions this time. The likelihood of a lengthy period of underperformance, such as 1966 - 1982, is increasing. The likelihood of a major (catostrophic?) bear is also increasing. For conservative investors, cash taken out of the market now may best stay on the sidelines for quite some time. Again, the above is all rank speculation; I haven't seen the newsletter. What do you think? Best wishes, I2

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11786)	2/8/2000 12:18:00 PM
From: rsie	Respond to of 15132

thanks for the headsup on the vfiix......just added to my porfolio..... thanks, this is such a good thread....Rich PS I am in the camp that fear will permeate the market that the greenman will go too far, but he will once again guide us to a "soft" landing.....

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11786)	2/8/2000 1:01:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Quote for the Day: "As long as the human psyche osselates between greed and fear there will always be crises. Last year it was the emerging markets. In 1994 it was Latin America. In the late 1970's it was global inflation. The psychological tendency to project recent experience straight-line into the future causes crises due the the sloppy attitude towards risk the accompanies the trend. This is the boom: the main trend is reinforces until it becomes unsustainable. At the point of instability a crisis is the logical end result. The panic of last year is over but there will always be another crisis -- just look for a dominating trend with mass participation and extreme leverage and you'll spot the next potential problem." Source: Unknown, October 1999.