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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (59937)	2/8/2000 2:59:00 PM
From: Harold S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I got to agree with Slider on FLC here though. Driller or no driller, FLC two years from now will be nowhere near 12...that is about as much of a guarantee as I can give!

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (59937)	2/8/2000 4:10:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

"Q" - not wavering in my belief of $30+ crude - just not fighting the tape/trend APA VRI today, KMG yesterday & big block dumps of GLM today, RDC & BJS - OSX fav's hit very hard - then the price is no object, exits on BSNX etc - the writing is on the wall -pre OPEC meeting; - that institutions are trimming here. DLJ's Galvin did not help, nor did Chevron with their comments. A NASDQ going higher aint helping either ?!!? My only thoughts are to have lots and lots of powder dry to take advantage of this; there will be more BSNX's - PGO & FLC will go lower imo - I want both of these badly in size. We have 3-4 weeks untill OPEC meets folks ! = lots of opportunity. I was loaded on margin with XTO - it is not breaking my cost basis, but not reacting here to great news either. I have to be honest on both the up & downside with myself. No emotion - only it is, or isnt working. I own XTO about right here; so I trimmed back to either buy XTO lower, or other E&P's much lower - NBL back at $20 again - did this $20-22 game 3,4 times; look at VPI - maybe I get IT in the $11's here soon, maybe I get APA at $32ish ? I am not impatient with XTO - it will work, but I can trim and nab some blow up plays, or even cheaper XTO imo prior to the OPEC meeting. I am diversifying and I am NOT ignoring that the drillers are STILL the momenteum FAV's - so I will dip laggards first - DO & FLC my fav's, wait for ESV RDC NE and service favs SII BJS WFT CAM a bit lower; worst case is I get PGO, BHI real cheap with my DO and FLC etc. I plan to be margined and loaded the day OPEC announces/meets - but, ready to trim if it breaks the wrong way as well. I am diversifying to drillers/service here "Q" for two valid reasons. 1. They work - they got the MO - they had the MO and they be going to continue to be having the MO...(VBG). 2. Valuations - on a risk vs. reward to fundamentals to momenteum basis; they now simply make sense again - here, on down. 3. E&P's will be THE single highest appreciation niche - potentially; IF NG peaks to $3 this summer and crude stays over $23ish; but DRILLERS will be first, or second under any scenario - so it now makes sense to build a strong driller position on this retrace imho. Trust me; I still own plenty of 8 1/8 XTO, $20 NBL, $14 7/8 EOG, etc. Jim L - VPI - can you believe it ? It's coming back here... whodathunkit ? FLC is a must "double/triple" before FGH ever see's anything like the last Rig boom - bank on it DeepSgt. 33 stacked money machines that all must hit the water at peak dayrates; that are NOT factored into ANY analyst estimates here for FLC, before the economics of newbuilds are even a remote possibility. Sgt. Deepwaterbubblefart; get a damn clue - play "deepwater" smartly here - own the drillers. Holloway was probably closer to filing a reorg than anyone realizes. Chevron just shot a hole thru the heart of any thoughts of a Deepwater Rig Construction Boom - RIP FGH... Big Oil is not throwing any money towards Deepwater Newbuilds ANYTIME in the next 12-15 mos. They have allready made that VERY CLEAR to all the analysts ! Do you FGHspamophiles read ? - an odd contract here & there AINT gonna cut it. This Boom 2000 will be different, it allready is folks - recognize the trends and the differences. FGH is now down to 14% institutional ownership - they basically "took JL out & shot him" with their actions here. ONE MILLION shorts have NOT covered here either; why ? Greedy, stupid ? - NOT ! 14% Institutional ownership in the supposed "yard of choice" and a $20 price target ? - give me a break people - this is now the parriah of the patch - period. The shorts are still here for a reason - ITS A NO BRAINER ! Got FLC ? C'Mon $28ish RIG...