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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (11799)	2/8/2000 5:31:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

I2: Re: "I know there has been a lot of talk on this thread about hedging via shorting QQQ, etc. I hope there aren't too many in this position, taken from another SI thread." Personally, I have not taken this route. I have just cashed in on the long side as prices have increased. After today, I am only 15% in equities with 85% in cash and bonds. A record low equity exposure for me. I have watched my portfolio and when it hit above the upper level with a 20% gain YTD, I cashed out. Vacation planning was a factor. It is right around the corner for me and I did not want to be very long or short during vacation. Cash seems to be a perfect vacation holding. Besides, my better half thought the whole thing was getting insane. She got real upset when she saw the e-trade commercials on her weather channel and got real peeved when e-trade hosted the super bowl half-time. She said the whole thing reminded her of the new millionaire shows on television. The final blow came when her low keyed radio show had a advertisement for a multi level marketing technology deal. This seems to be the perfect environment for pure speculation. The productivity numbers have given the "new era" investors cause for celebration. And they are a cocky bunch as you can see on the BB thread. They have already projected this trend into the future indefinitely in the face of market history. I recall John Templeton saying in 1987 before the crash that when people say things are different they are right 20% of the time. But the danger is that people think that any real differences will continue uninterrupted. So QQQs could be relatively strong until the money runs out or the margin window closes or until we spin a bad economic number and/or the Fed. gets hostile. I could not tell you when and at what level that might be at this point. It is a pure confidence game at work now in the Naz. and there are plenty of players. Hey, isn't consumer confidence at an all time high??? Enough said.

To: Investor2 who wrote (11799)	2/8/2000 6:41:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

I2, that's why after a lot of thinking I decided to put my hedge on the S&P500 and stay away from the NASDAQ 100. Who knows, maybe a week from now I'll be saying I can't believe I didn't short the NASDAQ 100 when it was at blah blah blah. I just thought Bob's call was really based primarily on the S&P500 and Shorting the NASDAQ 100 was both too unpredictable and frankly too rich for my blood the way it's been moving since last year. If we have a bear it should get killed but the if and when part of that makes it very tough. Marc

To: Investor2 who wrote (11799)	2/8/2000 7:54:00 PM
From: Mr. BSL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

I know there has been a lot of talk on this thread about hedging via shorting QQQ, etc. I hope there aren't too many in this position .. I2, shorting QQQ is an excellent hedge for volatile NASDAQ stocks/funds IMO. USPIX, which is neg 2 times QQQ, is even better. A little dab'll do ya!! Let's say you own PBHEX, MNNCX, RSEGX & VWEGX. These are high octane Tech/Net funds that were up 175% to 275% last year. They probably won't perform as well every year, but you don't want to give up all of last years gains in any future bear market. If your indicators - whatever they may be - are telling you that the market is in a high risk state, you may want to hedge them. Their beta'a are: PBHEX 1.62 MNNCX 1.87 RSEGX 1.56 VWEGX 1.41 If you had say $10K in each, you could do a 50% hedge by buying $11K worth of USPIX, which has a beta of -2.9 Results for February: USPIX -23% ($2,533) PBHEX 15% $1,538 MNNCX 13% $1,344 RSEGX 18% $1,794 VWEGX 11% $1,083 total 6% $3,225 I'll be happy to publish the downside results, if and when the high techs get pounded. FWIW, Dick

To: Investor2 who wrote (11799)	2/9/2000 10:42:00 AM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

"I know there has been a lot of talk on this thread about hedging via shorting QQQ, etc. I hope there aren't too many in this position, taken from another SI thread:" I may have been the most recent one to raise the topic. As I wrote, I am a rank greenhorn on the topic. I'm still watching. And, getting quite an education! (Thanks again for those who offered ideas and suggestions.) Wow! Imagine having a significant short position! (I'd rather not.) Ciao, David Todtman