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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (59996)	2/9/2000 11:15:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

"Q" NBL EOG BR near last years prices - Also, we did have a real nasty bottom in Jan last year, but we will be at the same prices on many issues come end of this month - compared to last Feb/early march - and maybe April. PS I sure would have liked some SDC at $9 (VBG)... we won't retrace to VTS @$8, or $5 FLC, or anything close - but, BR NBL EOG at, a day away, or couple of bucks from lows; APA - in another day could be within $3 of its 52 week low - with their performance ??? BHI near last year, HAL not too far away SFS had a nice earnings report - earnings are unrewarded for these guys - 7 PE? Volume is not massive, but if many of these break technical levels - we could see high volume. APA just had a 100K big block sell at $35 - makes no damn sense ? APA will see $50 by year end... what are these guys thinking ? - imho; it was a general fund that bought on all the great APA recommendations earlier - it has been soft - and they dump on no momenteum, regardless of the super upside expectations for the balance of the year... crazy imho.. We are in a momenteum world here... the energy speciality funds who do know the sector - have no reason to chase here - they all ready own lower, or are smart to see where prices go prior to OPEC announcing. Awfully quiet today...(VBG).

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (59996)	2/9/2000 12:28:00 PM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 95453

John Q I don't know about "much more idle equipment". The Baker Hughes US rig counts are up close to 40% from a year ago, Canada has more than doubled and even GOM utilization rates are up 10%. The really puzzling thing is the lack of international activity, especially in the North Sea in the face of $25 Brent. Another way to pick up XTO in the 7's might be short puts. I just sold my second 10 of Aug 10's at 2.75. Naked puts are considered to be wildly risky but somehow, having to buy 2000 XTO the 3rd Friday in Aug for 7.25 breakeven doesn't seem very scary. I think XTO will be well beyond 10 by Aug and I'll just pocket the $5500. It lets you see beyond the daily noise and gives you time for the cycle to play out. I normally prefer low strikes but the APA Apr 45's are also tempting for $10. One surge above 40 and you can probably buy them back for 5 bucks. Just another way to play this stuff without the daily agonizing over OPEC, API, AGA, EIA, DOE and on and on. John