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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (24238)	2/10/2000 6:03:00 AM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

His numbers are slightly more agressive than I would like to see but he is very close to being on target. Much of the growth will be in the form of "obsolescene." The shift to <0.18u technologies and 300mm production lines will generate significant upsides to the market and for the equipment companies. We have not seen the tip of the iceberg yet. However, the real issue with increasing valuations of our favorite companies are the analysts that will see smaller incremental growth rates in the numbers. There comes a time when the 200% increase in revenues and earnings become 25% incresases since we cannot be exponential forever. My feeling is that this will be preceived incorrectly and we will not get the valuations we might think. Clearly, I would say that the numbers are slightly optimistic but more importantly, I would agree that this recovery and boom cycle in the industry can and will strewtch into the 2004 timeframe. this will be a long expansion and upgrade cycle creating a sustainable environment. Someone said (I think henry Blodgett) that within a few years, 75% of the dot.com companies will not exist through failure or consolidation. The equipment sector may have a few consolidations but the secotr will prevail for more years than the present Internet companies that are being hyped. We can look forward to solid earnings and decent margins for a few years. The question is whether we will be rewarded by decent price appreciation. And since we are on this CYMI thread, even though my 1 year target for CYMI has been $75 for awhile, I have never disputed not would I dispute a $200-$250 price tage for CYMI since the numbers suggest this is entirely possible.<GGG> I would gladly wait the next 4 years to let it happen, even though it could be in a shorter timeframe. andrew