To: Gord Bolton who wrote (5637 ) 2/9/2000 6:42:00 PM From: Goalie Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7235
This news story out of the Indaba 2000 mining conference in Cape Town (Feb. 8-10) where CJ is one of the guest speakers and SUF has a display booth: World metal demand seen higher, but Africa lags By Darren Schuettler CAPE TOWN, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The world mining industry is set to enjoy increased metal demand on the back of stronger global economies with mineral-rich Africa a key supplier and source of future projects. But political instability and conflict will continue to threaten the continent's reputation among foreign investors and mar success stories in several countries, industry leaders and analysts said on Tuesday. ''I have never seen a time when all the world economies have looked so good. I think we are set for a major bull market in all metals,'' consultant David Williams told an international mining conference in Cape Town. Barring an unforeseen economic recession, Williams said the world mining industry would be pressed to keep up with demand for raw materials and most metal prices will increase in real terms over the next decade. Copper demand was forecast to rise to 14.3 millon tonnes in 2000 from 13.3 million tonnes last year, while aluminium demand was seen climbing to 23 million tonnes from 21.7 million tonnes. ''The scene seems to be set for a significant increase in the real price of metals which will make marginal orebodies profitable and the financing of existing orebodies more easily obtainable,'' said Williams. A Reuters poll in January predicted metal prices would rise at least five percent above 1999 levels with biggest gains in nickel and aluminium at 28 percent and 21 percent respectively. Despite the recent volatility in gold, Williams said he was a gold bull again and predicted steadily improving prices over the next few years, buoyed by less producer hedging, flat production and steady growth in demand. VIOLENCE AND CONFLICT HINDERANCE TO INVESTMENT Africa is one of the world's biggest sources of copper, gold, coal and platinum and mining is a key source of foreign exchange and jobs. But the continent's volatile past has often made it difficult to unlock those riches. Exploration spending shrank to $2.7 billion worldwide in 1999, down from $3.5 billion the previous year and $5.1 billion in 1997 -- reflecting dismal metal prices and the lingering effects of the Bre-X gold scandal. But the drop was felt more in Africa where exploration budgets were trimmed by 50 percent, compared to a 30 percent decline in Latin America, Africa's rival for mining dollars. Alex Panko, metals and mining coordinator for Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, said investors frown at Africa's lack of a skilled workforce and sometimes non-existent infrastructure. A brief period of peace has been shattered by civil wars in copper-rich Democratic Republic of the Congo and Angola, while a secure peace on the Ethiopian-Eriterean border remains elusive. ''All this has convinced international investors that Africa is an unstable and dangerous to operate in. Throw in the AIDS epidemic, exchange controls and potential investment looks even more unstable,'' said Panko. He said specific mining stories have reinforced investor skepticism, including last year's high profile failure of the Hartley platinum project in Zimbabwe and the near collapse of Ashanti Goldfields in Ghana. The west African country was once the darling of the investment community, but the crown has shifted to Tanzania which has lured companies with its investor-friendly mineral code and economic reforms. Mozambique, where a Billiton (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: BLT.L) led consortium is building the huge Mozal aluminium project, and Zambia's soon to be privatised copperbelt were also mentioned as African success stories.