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Technology Stocks : THQ,Inc. (THQI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond James Norris who wrote (13131)	2/9/2000 7:09:00 PM
From: Sigmund	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14266

Ray, glad to see you posting. I was wondering what your take was on the current situation. You certainly called it correctly last time when you said you wouldn't trade THQI. But I seem to be missing the point of your last post. "I just read this comment today which I believe is dangerous: >>read the posts of Mciainjk, bonzo3, wildman Ltltt, and others who educate about the fundamentals of this stock. the post of McIainjk 3 back of yours was excellent. you got in at a good price and will be rewarded in the next year with a 50-100%+ return if you just sit on your shares. Buy more if you have $, this price is a steal!!!!!<<" You may again be correct but I wonder if this time you are letting your emotions influence your technical analysis. What is the significance of longs continuing to feel the stock is a good buy? Why is that dangerous? It escapes me.

To: Raymond James Norris who wrote (13131)	2/9/2000 8:26:00 PM
From: OGM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14266

>>>Thus, the long term implications are negative. THQ's attitude is changing. Investors no longer believe it is deserving of the constant rise we've seen in the last 5 years. As such, I have sold much of my long term portfolio (I have no short term holdings). The sentiment is changing on Wall Street and I see no reason to risk my capital in hopes of THQ turning around.<<< Raymond, You're kidding, right? Are you proposing that TA is a better long term predictor than actual performance? I could maybe understand those who say TA is useful for short-term predictions, but I know of noone who has gotten rich off of using TA for long-term investment decisions. I'm assuming you're not just a short, and your being earnest. If so, how does TA and charts outweigh the performance of THE BUSINESS ITSELF in determining price long term? The examples you mention (CSCO, MSFT, etc) are great examples of companies for which TA is of no value in the long term -- people want to own those companies because the managers of the business deliver superior results, dominate their industries, and have great balance sheets. The logic of your post implies that the tail wags the dog. "Regaining posture"? Sorry, but in the long term, the only posture that's important is delivering results, not the short-term price. But, if you insist on complicating your life by focusing on things other than the intrinsic value of the business (the present value of the cash flows the business will generate), you're welcome to sell me your shares at the current price. Of the many things that the managers of this company are guilty of, delivering fantastic products and great shareholder value are not among them. And at the end of the day, that's all that matters. -OGM

To: Raymond James Norris who wrote (13131)	2/10/2000 1:33:00 AM
From: Emmo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 14266

Well Raymond, I want to refute everything in your post but I can't spend that much time. However, you have forgotten what a chart represents and why it can never be trusted. Likeness to truth is not the same as truth. Charts are a math model of trying to display and predict human behavior. Without any theoretical structure to explain why patterns seem to repeat themselves across time, these charts provide little assurance that today's signals will trigger tomorrow's events. While these charts or models provide important insights into how complex the real world behaves, there is no proof of cause and effect in the chart patterns that precede the arrival of other patterns in the market or the spin of a slot machine. While your post attempts to show your ability to predict the future, the reality is that your chart is no better at then me saying "it'll be 100 by May!!"". Your computer screen my be soothing with all it's numbers, graphs and brillant colors. But as you look at the passing parade of numbers you have forgotten that the computer only answers questions and does not ask any. If you live strictly by the numbers you might find that the PC has replaced the fortune teller or wizard in guiding your decision making. But back to THQI and points to remember. There is a huge SHORT position. There is a small float. There is information NOT shared with the public about who is short and when have they traded. We do not know how much stock is bought for cash or margin, etc.,etc. There is a LOT of information hidden from the small investor. But enough information is known to make a decision on the risk involved in this stock. We know sales have been strong based on industry reports, we know they have long term license's in several hot segments. We know they have a solid management team. We know they have a very sucessful distribution model. We know the gaming market is growing rapidly. (Likely will exceed the motion picture industry in gross revenue in 2000). We know the stock is undervalued based on earnings growth compared to its peers and the rest of the market. We know Q4 was very successful unlike some of it's peers. We know 2000 will have many new titles on various platforms and includes titles for the highly anticipated new platforms. We also know there is no debt. But dispite all this,(and more I'm sure) apparently enough shareholders have choosen to revise their beliefs,not according to any objective method, but instead, overweigh the newest information and underweigh prior and longer term information. As a result the stock price has overshot so far to the downside that it's reversal is predictable regardless of what happens to earnings or any other objective factor. This type of irrational pricing is what brings home the bacon for the shorts {on occasion} and provides others a new opportunity. I say buy and hold and I'll see you in 3 months.