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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lee who wrote (27535)	2/10/2000 9:39:00 AM
From: Tecinvestor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

CNBC just reported that ABN AMRO just upgraded SUNW from hold to buy with a $110 target. Nice revision from a conservative house. Tecinvestor

To: Steve Lee who wrote (27535)	2/10/2000 10:07:00 AM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 64865

steve - good points but old news - most savvy observers have believed for a while that Linux is more of a threat to Solaris than to NT. however, to really understand the trend, you need to look at NT sales growth - that curve has fallen below projections. 2 years ago, NT was gaining share against everyone, growing at about 3X the overall unit growth. Now it is about at the industry growth curve. Win2K may change that and re-kindle the NT growth curve but probably not at the expense of high end Unix. As you point out, the revenue generated from Unix did not decline at the same rate as the units - indicating that Linux is mostly taking share from other low-priced OS offerings, in particular Netware in F&P applications. Linux has also gotten a pretty decent share of web servers - especially the farms of many small servers - running with Apache. In that setting, the poor SMP performance of Linux (the poor scaling beyond 2 processors) is not a drawback as those systems are typically uniprocessor or dual processor configurations. Linux is also eating up SCO - the products have similar capability (although SCO has much better SMP and clustering capability) and address similar markets. I think you are probably right about Win2K server sales, but I question the IA64 sales - even MSFT sees that market as only 1% to 2% of overall NT sales on a revenue basis, and much less on a unit basis. There is currently no plan for an IA64 desktop product from MS, for example... and in any event that product will not come to market until mid-2001 at the earliest, except as a developer's edition (i.e. beta code).