To: Bill F. who wrote (75610 ) 2/14/2000 10:44:00 PM From: pater tenebrarum Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 132070
Bill, just read your rap...the story about the guy who after 1 month of stock trading thinks he's an expert and eschews the advice of someone with 15 years experience strikes a chord. Prechter, whatever his failings, has described such a state of affairs months ago as typical for the last stage of an investment mania...expert advice is shunned, as everybody becomes a stock market 'expert' all by himself. he mentioned the example of the jockey who was dispensing stock market advice in interviews (his picks: CMGI, YHOO and AMZN)...Prechter suggested that next time around they may just as well ask the horse for advice. after reading your story about the wired plant and the dart-throwing monkey, i believe that's exactly what has happened already. i am btw. not surprised that the broad monetary aggregates show the Fed is still priming the pump...remember 01/03? that was the first trading day in months that was NOT accompanied by a back-door infusion of liquidity. immediately the market suffered it's biggest one-day sell-off for a long time. i believe the Fed is in full bubble maintenance mode since then...they know this can not end peacefully and believe the best course of action is to delay the inevitable (it's an election year after all...i'm not sure if the freshly re-appointed bubble-head-in-chief, Mr. Gradualist, is above cutting deals with the admin.). therefore, the only hope the bears have is that somehow the markets themselves put an end to the insanity, perhaps in the form of an unforeseen event like a collapse in JGB's or some other as of yet unglimpsed calamity. failing that you'll probably have more chapters to add to your mania chronicles... regards, hb