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Biotech / Medical : Biotechnology Value Fund, L.P. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (1341)	2/11/2000 7:33:00 AM
From: The Dodgy Ticker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4974

<Never, ever, have I seen a management team make a transition like this team has failed.> Not even CIST's? <vbg>

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (1341)	2/11/2000 10:18:00 AM
From: biowa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4974

Rick, the last thing that the company should do now is sell shares after this protracted mess Very true. To even register to sell shares with the cloud that's been over GLIA's head would be a tightrope walk to get a fair valuation. To do it with the stock so absolutely flattened by shorts would be incompetent. Now, if one were to be able to release an optimistic 1999 report, followed shortly by 1Q numbers showing dramatic re-uptake, now the shorts might be on the run. Throw in a couple of other positive news items (you have any picks?), and with the price running then you announce an offering. That might be how astute mgmt would play it. But not saying that GLIA's qualifies... Just providing possibilities. biowa

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (1341)	2/11/2000 11:22:00 AM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4974

Rick, With all due respect, I have to disagree with you. I understand that you've been sitting in this far longer than I have and you no doubt have more than enough reason to be frustrated. That said, there are a few points I think are relevant. When I wanted some information on the company, I put in a request on their web site and I got a more or less immediate response from Adam. In a couple of days, I had all that I wanted. Since then, I've complained about their web site and asked a few other questions and I've consistently gotten quick and informative answers. In my book, Gliatech gets a point for that. I'm inclined to take a Bayesian approach to evaluation and I incorporate every little bit of information in my mental model. This particular bit gives me reason to believe that the company is well managed in at least one area. It's by no means the case that all companies respond with such alacrity and consideration to all investor requests. It gives me the impression that morale is good within the company. The ADCON-L problem was a serious blow to them. I'm sure it took a lot out of everyone. But it's resolved now and I like the fact that they did it quickly yet professionally. They announced that shipments were going out again after they had actually started them. That's a good thing. They're staying quiet about ADCON-P, but then they have to. As I understand it, enrollment is not yet complete and any announcements beyond what came out of the pilot study would be premature and could bias the trials. The FDA would not appreciate that. Note that Intergel was rejected by the FDA; it's probably wise to be very careful with the ADCON-P study. Moreover, anything they say now short of giving out actual data would likely be perceived as hype and I really don't want that. They've also had some fairly significant personnel changes. Any good organization is going to leave some time for such changes to be integrated into the organization. That's just the way it is. I'm sure they're doing what they can on that front. Irrespective of what happened with the ADCON-L issue, I'm sure that the labs have been working hard on the other product candidates. And management is no doubt carefully considering their options now. These people aren't stupid; they've come a long way with the company and I'm reasonably convinced they still know how to lead their team. I would like to see some press releases too. But I'm going to give things time to play out. I'm guessing that we'll see something by the March 1 earnings release. And if they've done their job and guided the street appropriately, there shouldn't be any negative surprises. Note that a positive surprise could occur as there's got to be a lot of restocking going on now. According to the Prudential report, they surveyed a number of surgeons and they appear eager to resume using ADCON-L as soon as they can get it. Note also that some places weren't without a supply even during the FDA import ban. In a way, I have an advantage as I haven't had to go through the whole ADCON-L debacle. I moved into this one after the FDA issue was resolved. What has been interesting is watching the trading pattern. For a while, there were runs on it with the shares being pushed down rapidly on a bunch of 100 share sells. This has continued to some extent. But the push has been steadily weakening and it's not clear it's there any longer. Today we have a weak market. Yet GLIA is holding nicely so far. There's volume, but not a lot. That's alright, I can wait till March 1 if I need to..... I would not be at all surprised if we take out the Prudential target by early March. Thanks, Torben