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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3615)	2/11/2000 3:34:00 PM
From: sisuman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

To: Tero From: SISUMAN Subject: The WAP opportunity/battle Ericsson has just announced that it expects (conservatively) some 600 million mobile Internet users by 2002. This has very interesting implications. I did a projection as follows: 2000 2001 2002 Annual handset sales 410m 530m 650m WAP handset sales 40m 200m 360m WAP mkt. share 10% 38% 55% Nokia WAP phones 12m 60m 108m I assumed that Nokia got a 30% market share. The implications are: 1. Nokia current asp is $169/phone and it makes about $40 profit/phone - down from $233 and $44 in 1998. WAP sales could turn this around significantly (double?) by 2001. 2. If Nokia truly has a WAP lead, its mkt. share could go beyond 30%. 3. The handset business is going to change in a major way in the next 3 years with WAP leadership up for grabs. 4. What % of this WAP market will be in the U.S. in the next 3 years? Low? SISUMAN

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3615)	2/12/2000 8:01:00 AM
From: Puck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

The Baby Bells have a reputation for adopting new technologies at a glacial pace. They are blamed entirely for the lack of market development of ISDN in the U.S.. Where I live near Chicago, I detect absolutely no marketing of DSL internet access to consumers and only a tiny bit too businesses. There is surely a market here of great potential that is being almost completely unaddressed for what it is. I think DSL has many advantages over cable. There is no need to bring another communication line to the house--the standard old telephone line will do. As well as the convenience of being able to utilize that one phone line for both internet access and voice communications simultaneously without any interference because they act on different frequencies. Not having to change the fixed line infrastructure on the consumers end seems to me to be a great advantage.