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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (60148)	2/11/2000 1:21:00 PM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

FGH Stock languishes due to Information Gap What's wrong with this scenario? "World crude oil production declined by 1.24 million barrels a day last year to 64.8 million, while consumption grew 1.17 million barrels per day to a record 75.26 million, according to the study. The Energy Information Administration on Monday released its latest short-term energy outlook predicting those trends will continue. World oil demand is expected to grow by about 1.2 million barrels per day this year and an additional 1.9 million barrels per day in 2001. chron.com WHILE! Friede Goldman Halter, Inc (FGH) common stock languishes NEAR all time lows BECAUSE Company information which trickles out is conflicting, confusing and generally raises more questions than answers. EXAMPLES: Ocean Rig (TWO) 5th generation semi-submersibles: FGH has already taken a ($0.36) per share charge in 3Q/99 relating primarily to the Ocean Rig dispute. Friede now expects that it will break-even or post a modest profit on these rigs. WHEN will these charges be recaptured in the form of earnings? Petrodrill/Amethyst (TWO) 4th generation semi-submersibles: Neither Friede nor Petrodrill will comment on the status of negotiations. Nevertheless, FGH management maintains that FGH has billed and collected more on these MARAD-financed rigs than its cost to construct them to date. It appears there is positive Cash Flow; but, what about earnings? The Company has informed Petrodrill that it is entitled to compensation for additional costs and delay damages. At present, does Friede expect to post a profit or loss on these projects? The Company has stated the project will be reported under cost accounting which amortizes costs over a 25 year period Millenium S.A. $143.5m semi-submersible: While the Company has recently indicated to stockholders, this project "MAY" be removed from backlog in 4Q/99 (it was earlier reported in the 3Q/99 report that financing was expected in 4Q/99); NO public announcement regarding status of the project has been released. WHY? Disposition of Assets: The Company is currently having appraised, all recently acquired assets. When complete, evaluations will be made to ascertain which non-strategic properties and equipment will be sold to reduce debt, increase cash for operations, and achieve synergies/efficiencies; with the ultimate goal of growing the Company and Stock holders' equity and value. Mr. Holloway has made commitments to stockholders to GROW stockholder value. Chinese $110m barge (the bond for this project was secured weeks ago.) Why hasn't it been publicly announced? When the contract was announced there was no reticence in pointing out that the bond had not yet been secured. From a PR perspective, this type selective reporting borders on gross negligence IMO. Consolidation of Halter & Friede fundamental data (backlog, earnings, projections, etc.): Raises the question WHEN and WHY is it taking so long? Earnings Estimates: Multex Investor - 4Q/99 (-$0.10) 1Q/00 $0.06 FY/99 $.46 FY/00 $.57 (23.9% year over year EPS increase) Expected 5 year EPS Growth Rate 15% multexinvestor.com Yahoo (data source: Zack's Research): Quarterly Estimates Not Available. FY/99 $.62 FY/00 $.65 Expected 5 year EPS Growth Rate -15% biz.yahoo.com BOTTOM LINE: It is time Mr. Holloway keeps his commitment (increase stock value) to stockholders by becoming pro-active in support of the stock price by all legitimate means. Because of the drastic drop in stock price, many of the Company's stockholders are NOW FORMER owners (who could no longer stand the pain of watching their capital disappear in a seemingly bottomless pit). Many of these former owners have been replaced on the message boards by an army of pit-bull attack dogs WHO seize the information vacuum as a means of manipulating the stock while the company appears to have adopted a Code of Silence. By releasing a public, comprehensive update on the various conflicts identified, above; and by instructing Investor Relations to use CANDOR in releasing future information required by Investors for in-depth analysis, I believe investor confidence may be restored. Periodic, comprehensive updates (including information provided to analysts) should be posted on the Company Web site IR@fgh.com for investor and potential investor information and evaluation. There is so little posted on the Web site, I am beginning to question if its expense is justifiable. As a staunch supporter of this company, I have become increasingly frustrated with the dearth of information and the apparent unwillingness of the Company to follow-up on expressed, favorable expectations which fail to materialize. In my view, it is NOT negative information which is killing this stock. It is the ABSENCE of fundamental FACTs which should be readily available to the investment community. How can analysts or investors be expected to realistically value a stock (and BUY it) when so little information is available? While there appears to be few sellers at current levels, perhaps more importantly is the ABSENCE of motivated BUYERs. With so little known about the merged companies (i.e. consolidated financial information) this is to be expected. The question is WHY has this situation been allowed to fester for months? This whole ball of wax is starting to develop a distinctive, repugnant aroma. COMMENT: The Ocean Rig settlement, recent announcements of new and revised contracts of over a quarter BILLION dollars, and the announcement by Tidewater (an old and valued Halter customer) of a $300m building program of boats Friede is uniquely qualified to construct should have sent this stock soaring. Instead, it languishes as a result of confusing/contradictory information and failure by the Company to become more pro-active in providing full and complete disclosure of information concerning events which cloud the company. It appears that ALL possible negatives have been factored into the stock and all things positive, are positively dismissed as irrelevant. I left a message on Mr. Hasting's answering machine a couple of hours ago with the hope that the above issues may be discussed. If and when I get a response, any information received will be reported on this message board. I am NOT holding my breath. SargeK (Patient, LONG TERM bullish; but, disgruntled) O/T Mouth: If what you say about FGH is true (and it isn't); how do you account for over 1/4 BILLION in NEW & REVISED orders (Not counting the 100m annual maint & repair business the company doesn't carry in backlog) and THE VERY LIKELY PROSPECT THAT FGH WILL CAPTURE MOST, IF N0T ALL THE TIDEWATER NEW BUILD PROGRAM. TDW's announcement is a STRONG endoresement (putting their money where there MOUTH is) that they expect robust DEEPWATER activity over the next couple of years and based on EXPERIENCE plans have to be executed LONG BEFORE expected activity is to occur.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (60148)	2/11/2000 8:51:00 PM
From: rich evans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Well Slider, I listened to the VRC conference call today and a lot of what you say seems to be correct but they say it much nicer<g>. They did revs of near 600 mill in 99 but in 2000 will be running for the first two quarters at about a yearly 350 mill run rate which is mostly upgrade orders plus they do rental income. But one point they made is that during the past construction boom of rigs that 56 out fof 60 rigs made were deepwater rigs which cost a lot as you know and varco gets about 50 mill per rig. There is talk now but not much in orders coming. But they think the next construction cycle which seems at least 6 months away will be in Jackups and Platform offshore rigs Varco gets about 20-25 mill work on Jackups and 15-20 mill for Platform work. Also they indicated that they expect a lot of upgrade sales because during the previous boom everyone was devoting themselves to building the deepwater rigs an the upgrade activity was all pushed out so they think there is a pentup demand for it. This seems to correlate with one of Big Dogs old posts where he talked about this. How this all breaks out as to FGH , I'll leave to the experts. But Varco is expecting a 6 month lull and bottom of the cycle period with pickup thereafter but more in upgrade, jackups and platforms. There apparently are deepwater rigs available from the last construction boom to handle the more conservative approach towards exploration you and Chevron talk about . Varrco will probably use their cash for a stock buyback in the future especially at these prices. I hope jackups/platfroms and repair/upgrade will do it for FGH investors. If so then I would think they will do fine but as you indicated, it looks like a 6 month wait is in store. And this conservative drilling approach seems to also be apparant in HAL projections and stock price IMO. Rich