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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (39916)	2/12/2000 7:37:00 AM
From: bobkansas	Respond to of 99985

I enjoy reading your writing so thanks. But I do disagree with your logic of equal weighting the DOW and the NAZ. It is not apple to apple but more like pear to apple. The NAZ also tastes better although I agree the up and downs of the NAZ this year will be a challenge to many including me. Growth for our economy and the world is from the type of companies in the NAZ and not the old world DOW (even with INTC and MSFT included). If the DOW were truly representative it would also include CSCO and EMC. Just my own thoughts. I hope most here have a BEARable weekEND. Best regards to all.

To: donald sew who wrote (39916)	2/12/2000 7:52:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald, just to look at the averages may be misleading. I would prefer a chart based on total market capitalization including in the money option and employees stock option (puts/calls will be a wash but there are more call outstanding than puts). I think this way the steep rise of prices are better reflected than just averages. My speculation is that it may add about $1.5 to $2 Trillion to the present $17.5 trillion capitalization (or 25% to 30% of GDP). This also may explain why a 30% correction may spell RECESSION, as many option will just evaporate, or around $7 trillion will be dust. This amount is close to the yearly US GDP of $8.5 Trillion. Just wonder if this data is available and how different it may be. Haim

To: donald sew who wrote (39916)	2/12/2000 10:17:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 99985

bought more BMG yesterday

To: donald sew who wrote (39916)	2/12/2000 10:26:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 99985

interesting how the full moon has become in phase with the third Friday of every month. Looks like it stays that way through September.

To: donald sew who wrote (39916)	2/12/2000 11:21:00 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald, I too believe that the DOW has seen its peak, but am more concerned that the NYSE/NYA has seen its peak (long ago in fact, Jul 15 99) and as of this week the technical damage has only increased, as that index broke down out of its zone of congestion (begining May 13 99) for a 6th time, and at the same time also broke the trend line from Oct 98's lows. In all this time, the NYA only spend part of July 99 above the zone of congestion - lets call that one event. So all in all, not a bullish condition to say the least. Unless the NYA can pull back above 615 and hold, an in fact rally well, we must consider it to be in a bear market until proven otherwise. Certainly that makes more sense now than ever, as the majority of the time the NYA spend below the zone of congestion was during the SEA financial crisis. Now its a lack of love. Or? ;) The SPX I believe we need to look at a number of zones, the current one defined by 1404 and 1425. It has yet to fail outright so we'll have to watch and see. A break means that 1371 is the top of the next zone that we need to be concerned with. As far as I'm concerned a top is in, until proven otherwise. The uppermost zone of congestion was last broken on Jan 21 2000 and except for a brief revisit on 2/7, the SPX has proven its current intentions by immediately retreating into the zone lower that the market is currently in. I'll be watching these levels during rallies and acting accordingly. Cheers Michael