To: Dale Baker who wrote (15708 ) 2/12/2000 12:07:00 PM From: Laszlo Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 118717
Hi Dale, More on SEMX. I've been following the company since late 1996, when the stock peaked at $17. I started buying shortly after around $9, and bought all the way down to 1 1/2 and back up. My initial interest was due to being a silicon packaging engineer, and recognizing a growing problem with hot chips. After talking to the company marketing folks and reviewing the annual report, I started buying the stock. It was obvious to me that SEMX had something that was becoming increasingly important to the industry, thermal solutions. At that time, nobody knew the semiconductor industry was going to crash the following year. You're right, revenue fell due to the sale of RetConn. RetConn was profitable and they sold it to Litton Systems for something like $25 million, and paid down their debt with the funds. However, the revenue loss has been largely made up by increased business at Polese Company. SEMX is running at an annualized revenue rate of over $65 million ($10.50 per share) and earnings of about $.80 per share for net profit of 7.4%. Backlog at Polese Company alone has been on the order of $12-14 million each quarter recently. Polese is the "cash cow" of SEMX right now. Polese is just now turning on a process to produce Aluminum/Silicon-carbide (AlSiC) products. AlSiC is a composite metal made with a matrix of silicon carbide filled with aluminum. The unique properties of this material are its light weight, low (customizable) thermal expansion, and good thermal conductivity to help get heat out of IC packages. These properties make it ideal for packaging applications. Polese is in the process of acquiring another ceramics company in San Diego to expand their market. That acquisition will allow them to provide more products to the microwave/telecom market. AlSiC competitors include CPSX (which I also own) and Sumitomo Electric of Japan. Sumitomo's process makes their parts inherently more expensive. I believe SEMX and CPSX will "own" the AlSiC market. The wafer reclaim business is the wild card. It was that acquisition that got them into trouble, and they considered selling it. However, at the time of the Retconn sale, the wafer reclaim business was not worth anything because the market for silicon wafers was in the toilet. I am involved in the semiconductor industry and it's booming. This segment of the company may actually become profitable soon. I really don't know how much it could bring into SEMX. There are only 6 million shares outstanding, and only 4 million in the float. That could be a slight problem, and I somehow wish they'd split the stock 2 for 1 to improve liquidity. It may come if it rises enough. Earnings are going to be announced on Tuesday, 2/15 and there will be a conference call: "You may participate in the conference call by calling 800-603-2480 and asking for the SEMX conference call with Gilbert Raker, Chairman and CEO. If you are unable to attend the conference call you may listen to a taped recording of the conference (from 2 hours after the call until February 29, 2000) by calling 800-642-1687 ID# 537383. In addition, an Internet replay of the call will be available at www.audioinvestor.com commencing February 17,2000." I (and many others) expect Q4 earnings to be around $.20 or so, with FY99 total to be about $1.24 per share, including the one-time gain (~$0.60 without). I feel a P/E of 25-30 is not unreasonable for SEMX, considering expected growth rates. That should make it a $15-20 stock. As far as analyst coverage, it will come, IMO. I was involved with AEIS a couple years ago, bought at $7, sold my last shares at $18. 2 months later when the stock hit $25, analysts suddenly "discovered" it. It is now $65. Actually, one firm, Rodman and Renshaw apparently initiated coverage on SEMX last week with a buy rating and a price target of $20. See SEMX message board for details. This company is in a great turnaround situation, so don't let past financials, especially those a year or more old, fool you. I expect the stock to reach $30 to $50 long term. Thanks for letting me post on my favorite stock. Laszlo