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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KY who wrote (39947)	2/12/2000 11:37:00 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

KY, I think some on the thread are classically bearish and are so because of their own analysis (fundamental and/or technical) moves them to be so. Some on this thread (I'm in this camp) are bearish purely on a technical basis, and speaking for myself, its because I'm too stoo-pid to figure out economics and other hard stuff. I've been a big benefactor of the technology revolution, having been involved it it since 1980. This is a totally subjective comment, based on personal feelings, but I think your comments We'll know we are in a bear market when the techs finally crack...just don't think it's going to happen. Would take the mother of all shoes to drop. ... In order for this cycle to be broken, I think we need a meteriote to hit the planet. Otherwise, I am staying in tech to ensure I don't miss out on the revolution. Are truly indicative of most people. And that does scare me! The tech market trades where it is purely on emotion. I've seen all the arguements for justifying valuations and with an open mind have not been able to buy into any of them. Its been an amazing run up but it will end one day -- is it now? Who knows. Is the risk higher today than a month ago? Absolutely it is (from a purely technical basis). There is an emotional gap between the tech and non tech market. It will close one day, and it will not take a meteorite to do it. The charts will give us warning of it. Blind faith in ever increasing tech market will warn no one. Keep in mind that I fully understand the technical revolution and make gobs of money off of it (both in the market and out). I am not a perma bear. But the only way I have found to make sense of the stock market is to use TA and nothing but. If conditions change such that further price appreciation is likely, I will be right there saying so. However, the upside risks currently, with today's picture, are dwarfed by the downside risks.