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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (39998)	2/12/2000 2:50:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Hiya Donald... gee whiz...i missed you<g>.. the SOX...my 4c...i had a good week... from the recent Jan lows of 740, the SOX went stright up 200 points to 940 at the TOP of it's trading band... i would think a 30% or 50% pullback would be normal... but to say it put in a top??? maybe for now...but not for this year...i predict it will explode over the 1000 mark with ease.... the semiconductor industry is blowin' and goin' at breakneck speed..i have never seen such ballistic moves in these stocks... their better than the nets<G>...they actually make BIG money... Don we will see higher prices later this year for sure..the "New" cycle is now going to last a lot longer than the olds ones used too... anywaynice to see you posting again... regards OJ

To: donald sew who wrote (39998)	2/12/2000 6:57:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 99985

Donald The 3 strongest NASDAQ indices are the SOX, NWX, and BTK. I feel that the BTK is the least important of the 3, since that is the biotech industry which is extremely speculative, and do not think it can hold the NAZ up by itself. The SOX and NWX I think are the keys with the SOX as the main one, so I agree with you. I couldn't agree with you more. For some reason unknown to me I have ignored the BTK; perhaps I shouldn't although could confirm its relative importance by looking and NDX and SPX weighting contribution from that sector I guess. The SOX and NWX however I've been focussing all my attention on, in particular CSCO from the networkers because it really has become the poster child that Dell once was. I figure the emotional impact of any break there will carry more weight. For the NWX I believe the key level(s) to watch are obviously the recent highs but also 1014. If this is not "the" top, 1014 will be defended before too long. For the SOX - I am in full agreement with you that 900 is a key level - I take that from a 60 minute chart. My early warning was off a 5 minute chart, I believe the band between 929 and 918 is the key one to watch. Failure of 918 to hold (if it even rallies back up through it) will cause all my warning bells to go off. Literally (all programmed as alerts...) - and holding about 929 will basically have me standing aside looking for confirmation of a rally. BTK - would be surprised if it could possibly rally back to even 538, but if it does, a test of top and failure to hold 538 would be a level I'd watch. That's off 1 minute charts which I normally do not watch for this purpose. 516 is the more important one I think. CSCO - 133 is the price where another failure below there (if it rallies back there) will be quite meaningful to me and I'd be looking to go short, and continued failure below 131 basically confirms it to me and then I'll be looking for Friday and previous days lows to be taken out. When I say "confirms for me" I'm not so presumptious to suggest that this is an infallible call for "the top", just that these are key price levels that I watch and make a short decision based on their failure. Since its such a critical time for the Nas I am spending more time than normal looking for the points of potential break down (or up) so that the bells may ring in my ears come next week with whatever tune they decide to play... I actually hope that the market rallies since I will not be trading much next week and don't want to miss out on a highly directional down day... Cheers Michael