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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (40020)	2/12/2000 5:19:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

OJ, why do you think that the new cycle in the semi will last longer than prior cycles? The leading edge of the last cycle top was overcapacity in the DRAM sector, and prices their have been in continuous decline since the Taiwan earthquake induced big pop. Once the "old economy" (whatever that means) start to cut down on expenditures, if the fed's effort to slow things down succeed, that will percolate even to the SOX, IMHO. I do not see a top until much later this year, and maybe early next year (in the stocks, in the industry probably even later), but I would say that a good 80% of the cyclical move in the SOX is behind us. I think we will stop just short of the 1040, suggested by someone else on this thread. Zeev

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (40020)	2/12/2000 6:44:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Jerry, >>>> we will see higher prices later this year for sure..the "New" cycle is now going to last a lot longer than the olds ones used too... <<<< Nice to hear from ya. Heck if I know if a new high will be set, so I leave that to those smarter than me to decide. ggggggggg Regardless, wherever this forthcoming pullback bottoms, still should be a buying opportunity whether or not it sets a new high. I dont think that the SOX will go straight down, but would require a series of cycles. seeya