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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (40040)	2/12/2000 6:12:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Zeev because of Global Expansion and development of third world countries coming into the frey.. old semi cycles were boom and bust type events...i think with new technologies and explosive advances in wireless phones, and other expansions to wafer size and smaller micron size, this continued ramp up around the world fostered by the Internet..will herald a much longer broader expansion of the semi industry... just from my own sphere of influence, i have gotten this feeling of euphoria within the confines of the industry.. things are changing as we speak..in everyway regarding newer advancements within this field... while the US itself might slow, i doubt we'll see other emerging and recovering nations do the same...and even "when" we slow ourselves, it will not effect this sector.... everywhere my son travels there are hugh demands not being filled right now...this overwhelming demand imo, will begin to accelerate as our own and the worlds productivity continues to increase at breakneck speed.. there are gigantic shortages of chips everywhere and in every sector using these chips... things are looking brighter than ever..and from where i sit..every meaningful dip in this sector should be bought, and bought with a vengence... this sector has led this advance almost on it's own...it will continue to lead on down the road... Zeev this was/is dart throwing country....<g> my regards to you..OJ...

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (40040)	2/12/2000 7:02:00 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Zeev, you must not have heard the news. The cycles in the semis are over. They will just keep going up forever. An excerpt from the iWSJ: Semiconductor Industry Group Sees End to Boom-and-Bust Cycle By SCOTT EDEN - Dow Jones Newswires NEW YORK -- Exploding demand for communications devices and a more disciplined approach to adding manufacturing capacity should help semiconductor companies avoid the boom-and-bust cycle that has plagued the business throughout its history, an industry trade group said Monday ... ...But mitigating any future cyclical slowdown in the semiconductor industry, said SIA president George M. Scalise, will be chip companies' increasingly efficient supply practices. Helped by rising dependence on outsourced manufacturing, better manufacturing methods and increased use of e-commerce, the average period it takes for a chip order to be filled is two weeks, down from an historical average of 14 weeks. That means potential shifts in demand won't result in swollen inventories, Mr. Scalise said ... Al