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To: Les H who wrote (40005)	2/12/2000 3:41:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Big Oil Trio Chart Plan to Ease Prices By Richard Mably LONDON (Reuters) - Leading oil producers now are agreed that oil markets have swung too sharply against consumers and that extra crude is needed soon to douse prices, sources familiar with talks between the three countries said. The sources said Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico are negotiating a strategy aimed at letting the market down gently to achieve lower average prices over the remainder of the year. But the trio, the architects of output reductions over the past two years, face difficulties in convincing their fellow producers, keen to keep prices high, that supply limits should be eased any time soon. Tough negotiations over how to share out extra supply among 10 OPEC members plus Mexico and Oman and a reluctance to be seen reacting to pressure from the United States might also delay an agreement on higher supply, the sources said. ``Plan A is to get extra oil to the market, preferably soon, by April or May,' said one Latin American official familiar with ministers' telephone talks in recent weeks. ``The amount and the mechanism for distribution have still to be decided -- there is a lot of work left to be done in a short time. If there are difficulties then things might get delayed a few months.' A non-Saudi official with a Gulf producer said: ``The Saudis are now concerned that inventories are getting too low and that prices could stay too high for too long.' ``There would be an impact on the world economy and the long-term interests of producers would be put in jeopardy,' he added. Aim Is For Lower Average Prices The sources said the aim of the three producers was to allow oil prices to ease lower after averaging $25.50 a barrel for London Brent futures and $27.20 for U.S. light crude so far this year. Venezuela and Mexico this year both have budgeted for the equivalent of $19 U.S. crude. ``I think it is obvious that prices are very high and they will not stay this high. I would look at the budget estimates to tell the true story much more than suggestions about extending output cuts,' said another senior Latin American oil official. ``If we actually intended to maintain quota into September we would be talking about a much higher average price.' Brent last year averaged $18 and U.S. crude $19.25, gains of 35 percent from the lows of 1998, after suppliers agreed to target supply reductions of some five million bpd that expire at the end of March. The oil ministers of Saudi Arabia and Venezuela and Mexico now are working against the clock if they want to convince the remainder of the OPEC cartel to lift supply when it meets on March 27 in Vienna. Policy on output has been orchestrated over the past two years by the three ahead of formal OPEC conferences where Mexico attends only as an observer. Ironically, if prices fall from recent highs in the coming weeks, that would reduce pressure on OPEC to act and might allow supply curbs to be maintained beyond their end of March expiry. Venezuela's Oil Minister Ali Rodriguez and Luis Tellez of Mexico are expected to meet with Saudi Arabia's Ali Naimi in Europe in the coming weeks. A date has yet to be set. Two long-scheduled diary items, a meeting of Gulf Arab oil ministers on February 23 and U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson's visit to Riyadh on February 25-26, also have assumed added significance. Richardson is considering loaning oil to U.S. companies from the state Strategic Petroleum Reserve to counter shortages and Gulf producers will not want it to appear that Washington is dictating policy. ``The U.S. visit may serve only to aggravate the situation,' said an OPEC oilman in one Gulf country. Gulf OPEC producers the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are understood to sympathize with the Saudi position that extra oil may be needed as soon as April. Fringe OPEC player Indonesia, which rarely speaks out of turn, also this week said it wanted OPEC to agree to a slight increase in supply to bring oil back into the $22-$26 bracket. Opposition From Price Hawks Opposition to any strategy to lift volumes after March is likely to come from the three countries that met in Tripoli last month -- Libya, Algeria and Iran. Traditional price hawks keen to maximize revenues, they will be joined by Kuwait in arguing that, with the oil price collapse of 1998 still fresh in the memory, producers cannot risk causing a plunge in prices.

To: Les H who wrote (40005)	2/20/2000 9:05:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Advance/Decline and Moving Average Relationships By Sector: Feb 18, 2000 percent stocks advance percent stocks over MA sector 5 d 21 d 63 d 250d 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- General Market 02/18 42 38 45 50 37 41 44 43 high 3 02/17 46 41 48 51 47 47 48 45 02/11 39 47 50 52 44 42 47 45 02/04 59 54 54 51 53 47 51 47 low 01/28 25 45 55 48 26 39 46 44 01/21 52 61 63 50 54 58 59 49 high 2 01/14 54 63 62 49 62 62 59 49 01/07 40 56 55 49 52 58 57 48 low 01/05 35 48 51 46 38 48 50 44 high 1 12/31 65 58 56 49 72 66 61 48 low 10/18 16 24 26 51 19 23 24 35 Aerospace/Defense 53 32 45 34 47 43 49 34 Apparel (incl Retail) 32 20 23 31 30 22 18 19 Automotive 44 15 24 27 32 27 27 12 Banks 19 16 4 11 13 14 12 8 Biotechnology 93 89 96 94 92 93 99 96 Building/Construction 44 20 23 26 36 33 27 12 Chemical 44 24 37 37 25 21 32 21 Commercial Svcs 39 34 52 46 34 38 39 49 Computer Equipment 45 59 69 74 49 65 66 79 Consumer Nondurable 34 27 27 22 29 32 37 20 Drug (excl Biotech) 51 49 61 53 49 50 61 61 Electronics (incl Semi) 47 70 85 88 50 69 79 86 Environmental 41 18 32 41 32 32 36 32 Financial (incl S&L) 26 26 19 36 19 20 22 22 Foods 47 30 21 18 37 38 30 15 Healthcare 50 47 51 42 45 54 57 43 Household Products 35 43 33 35 38 38 33 28 Insurance 38 13 12 15 22 18 13 10 Internet 37 45 55 63 39 46 47 63 Leisure 36 26 35 40 29 31 32 23 Machinery 49 23 23 38 30 36 36 19 Media 23 22 45 63 20 23 31 52 Metals (excl Gold) 60 22 32 51 44 35 29 32 Oil & Gas 63 38 39 81 47 45 58 42 Paper Products & Pkg 34 12 22 40 28 22 18 16 Real Estate 29 17 29 24 28 26 37 8 Retail 28 23 25 31 25 24 23 18 Semiconductors 45 81 94 97 51 78 93 97 Software 49 60 76 76 51 63 66 78 Telecommunications 46 65 78 86 44 63 73 84 Transportation 44 25 23 26 32 34 29 21 Utilities 30 26 19 34 19 17 26 22 New Highs and Lows for Market ( 3710 stocks sans CEFs, ETFs) sector 20-days 40-days 63-days 1-year ---------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- General Market 02/18 219 - 760 190 - 592 170 - 505 130 - 318 high 3 02/17 462 - 456 379 - 333 340 - 267 278 - 188 02/11 278 - 712 231 - 504 209 - 430 150 - 261 02/04 400 - 345 321 - 240 278 - 199 221 - 130 low 01/28 92 - 631 73 - 401 64 - 311 40 - 188 01/21 562 - 393 458 - 277 405 - 210 289 - 136 high 2 01/14 582 - 197 407 - 130 363 - 97 229 - 63 01/07 596 - 195 336 - 123 269 - 71 127 - 45 low 01/04 113 - 548 74 - 375 65 - 266 32 - 153 high 1 12/31 679 - 111 468 - 74 402 - 54 262 - 35 low 10/18 72 - 904 48 - 715 32 - 613 22 - 289 New 20-day Highs and Lows By Sector sector num 02/18/00 02/11/00 02/04/00 01/28/00 ---------------------- --- --------- --------- --------- --------- Aerospace/Defense 47 3 - 11 2 - 15 3 - 5 1 - 7 Apparel (incl Retail) 88 2 - 23 4 - 19 7 - 10 2 - 34 Automotive 41 0 - 10 1 - 14 1 - 7 0 - 14 Banks 113 1 - 66 1 - 29 4 - 7 0 - 9 Biotechnology 72 23 - 0 16 - 3 12 - 2 2 - 2 Building/Construction 113 5 - 25 2 - 35 11 - 10 0 - 31 Chemical 71 4 - 19 2 - 34 8 - 13 2 - 22 Commercial Services 264 12 - 52 25 - 47 25 - 14 5 - 48 Computer Equipment 127 11 - 11 27 - 5 21 - 3 3 - 14 Consumer Nondurable 41 2 - 10 2 - 13 3 - 9 1 - 7 Drug (excl Biotech) 70 9 - 14 4 - 17 5 - 5 6 - 8 Electronics (incl Semi) 242 29 - 12 28 - 12 60 - 10 16 - 17 Environmental 22 1 - 3 1 - 6 2 - 1 2 - 5 Financial (incl S&L) 125 2 - 46 4 - 27 13 - 7 3 - 18 Foods 56 1 - 16 4 - 23 5 - 13 1 - 25 Healthcare 175 20 - 23 9 - 32 24 - 15 4 - 19 Household Products 40 0 - 5 2 - 10 3 - 6 0 - 5 Insurance 98 0 - 30 1 - 42 4 - 13 1 - 30 Internet 317 22 - 59 42 - 30 26 - 22 4 - 50 Leisure 122 2 - 22 4 - 16 10 - 10 1 - 19 Machinery 48 1 - 12 1 - 21 1 - 12 0 - 14 Media 84 4 - 36 4 - 13 12 - 5 4 - 15 Metals (excl Gold) 78 4 - 14 0 - 21 3 - 19 3 - 15 Oil & Gas 165 5 - 27 7 - 31 4 - 21 1 - 18 Paper Products & Pkg 50 0 - 19 1 - 17 2 - 12 1 - 10 Real Estate 106 0 - 18 3 - 32 2 - 14 2 - 11 Retail 257 4 - 75 14 - 62 17 - 32 7 - 60 Semiconductors 121 12 - 1 12 - 0 38 - 0 3 - 4 Software 179 20 - 16 27 - 11 34 - 10 5 - 29 Telecommunications 219 21 - 24 35 - 14 50 - 10 9 - 30 Transportation 88 5 - 13 2 - 22 4 - 12 1 - 24 Utilities 113 4 - 51 1 - 36 9 - 11 2 - 14 14-day Wilder RSI breakdown OEX NDX strongest above 90 0 0 stronger 70 to 90 1 5 strong above 50 19 56 weak below 50 63 35 weaker 10 to 30 17 4 weakest 0 to 10 0 0