SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Percival 917 who wrote (17811)2/12/2000 11:37:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54805
 
Joel,

As a reminder, I wrote that "I'm not sure how investors should take into account the $18 million in past fees from GIC accounted for in this one quarter." I'm still not sure.

It's almost as if it is deferred revenue. We know there will be more to come just from the arbitrator's ruling regarding GIC's analog infringement. And if you believe as I do, there will be a similar ruling for the alleged digital infringement by GIC, not to mention other legal stuff going on. I have learned that the analyst that had the highest estimate did include partial recognition of GIC past-due fees in his model. It's clear to me that I wouldn't include any punitivie damages as ongoing revenue from core operations, but past-due fees remains a story that adds mud to the water.

To get to your point (finally!) about whether or not the market has fully digested the earnings report, my guess is that it has fully digested it as much as it can. Like many of us here, I think the market isn't quite clear about how to digest the report despite the best efforts. And always hearing and seeing what it wants to believe, the market seems to be paying a lot of attention to the Cowen's target price for TV Guide that was a lot higher than its current price and the rumor (if not a fact) that Lehman set a price target for the Gem of $150.

Your thoughts?

Sorry to hear that things are still not going well for your father. Maybe you can cheer him up by pointing out a bunch of good looking women running around Chatanooga these days. They're training for the upcoming marathon in Nashville. My sister-in-law is one of them.

--Mike Buckley



To: Percival 917 who wrote (17811)2/13/2000 10:55:00 AM
From: unclewest  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 54805
 
<i<. My question is, can the market have fully digested the earnings report? I also expected the drop but not the rapid rebound, at least not until all the details come out and the TV Guide deal is done

hi joel,
imo the gmst revenue model is strongest at the ad revenue point. the ad revs were up from $200,000 to $800,000 sequentially.
while i am not predicting this...sustaining that kind of compounding on growth (400% quarterly) would mean a 128x increase in one year.
several of us do believe that gmst's growth will be exponential and geometrical....whatever that means
:o)
unclewest