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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Simpson who wrote (7944)	2/13/2000 11:07:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 9256

Tom, Jim Porter's table gives a clue as to when he expects various drive sizes to peak. Example 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 10-20 GB 3,736.5 10,604.7 14,171.7 8,771.1 2,926.3 Numbers are $M. disktrend.com Gottfried

To: Tom Simpson who wrote (7944)	2/13/2000 3:23:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Tom, To take Gottfried's response a bit further I have added unit shipments to his dollar volume as well as showing units for the 20 - 40 GB and 40-80 GB categories. << Tom, Jim Porter's table gives a clue as to when he expects various drive sizes to peak.>> Example 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 ($-M) 10-20GB 3,736.5 10,604.7 14,171.7 8,771.1 2,926.3 (Units-000) 10-20GB 77,205.0 57,600.0 20,190.0 20-40GB 42,830.0 88,390.0 66,060.0 40-80GB 3,705.0 46,970.0 101,260.0

To: Tom Simpson who wrote (7944)	2/13/2000 8:06:00 PM
From: T Bowl	Respond to of 9256

Tom - <<Do you have any opinions on when we will actually see a future wave of 15-20GB begin to make itself felt in the market? >> A very good source for expected areal density growth that I've seen is from the DecQ99 WDC shareholders report available on their website: Date GB/disk Dec-99 10.2 Mar-00 13.2 Jun-00 16 Sep-00 20 Dec-00 25 Mar-01 30 Jun-01 35 Sep-01 41 Dec-01 47 Mar-02 54 Jun-02 62 This tends to backup the statement in the Insight article. How many platters or heads are going to be sold? The weak players will die or be bought for nothing. Component players are NOT the investment to be in right now IMO. Esp the weak ones. (to be short on the other hand...) Seriously, at the end on 2K(or early 2001) we should be able to buy a 12GB+ disk drive that uses a SINGLE head... Think about it. What section of the PC market is on fire right now? Which section is expected to produce the growth? Right now we ought to all be discussing 1) who has the cash to last this out and 2) who can really be the low cost producer of DDs? It's gonna be about efficiency, cutting costs, and TTM. todd BTW, these are all expected to be GMR products.