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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (40104)	2/13/2000 9:46:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

csf.colorado.edu Again, to reiterate to those who can't understand why posters are bearish on this thread while people are jumping out of their skin bullish on the csco (or some other flyer) thread. This thread is titled "Market Direction Discussion" not "How high will csco go?" -g- The above chart of the advance decline line of the combined nasdaq-amex-nyse. That is "THE MARKET" Very simple when you look at that chart to understand why people are bearish on "the market" when you look at that chart, which is in a waterfall decline from 1997. The high flyers are swimming upstream against the tide, but eventually they will run out of gas and join in the trend that has been established at the 1997 and 98 tops. b

To: bobby beara who wrote (40104)	2/13/2000 9:51:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

My take on the market is that the Dow and value stocks in general do not have much more to go on the downside. But I see a big drop soon in the NASDAQ and the NDX. Once the tech bubble burst, the flow of funds into the value sectors should increase sharply.

To: bobby beara who wrote (40104)	2/13/2000 11:54:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

>>markets rarely end on record volume<< I thought that was the way markets exactly did end, a blow off top then putter out. Still I agree that we have one more , at least attempt back up this spring. The selling the last couple weeks was pretty obvious I thought. Down days were heavier than up days in volume at least on the stocks I watched and the TRIN clearly showed that the money was leaving. Zeev - I again agree we should have another rally attempt this spring but I doubt we will see DOW 13K. I have the 11500 area targeted and even that is stretching possibilities since the amount of upside possible in the DOW is where Don and I don't agree yet. Heck if I can predict that far out though so I will wait and see how things pan out. We may not get to 11K again for all I know. As for the NASDAQ, that too is difficult. I think we are arriving at point 23 on the 3 peaks and dome chart, Don feels we may be even further already. Regardless, this may be the high right here if we are right. My long term fork fit shows we are pretty much at the top and need to correct back substantially but I also see a manipulation target that would explain what you are looking for. Just like DOW 10K was a target and extended the DOW to a point where it faltered and they had to shuffle stocks around to hold it up, they may try to run the NASDAQ past 5K just to show they can but it is already so over priced that they will really have to work at it. Once they make it there though with a little over shoot, I would be a seller and it would never rise more once the momentum stopped. Note how the DOW and NYSE stalled after the 10K party. We have been flat with a slight downward bias ever since. Doesn't really matter to me, my signals work best in a flat market that is range bound. It makes trading much easier. <ggg> Good Luck, Lee